“The present Indian engagement is primarily economic and development with low key security in terms of training. An opposing view seeks military presence. Most old hands know that combating militancy in an alien land is the toughest challenge as the Indian armed forces realized in Sri Lanka.”
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By Col. Rahul K Bhonsle
(October 04, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) A number of significant activities have taken place in Afghanistan during September such as recount of votes in the Presidential elections and the McChrystal report. The interview by Indian External Affairs Minister to the Wall Street Journal wherein he remarked, there is no military solution to the conflict in Afghanistan but “there could be a political settlement,” is also relevant. The UN Election Complaints Commission has commenced recounting votes. Recounting only a sample of votes in Afghanistan's disputed presidential vote may not address concerns of all parties.
The Abdullah Abdullah faction is hedging its bets for a sample vote count may or may not provide a clear indication of the level of fraud and the manner in which this has happened across the country. It is said that in some places there have been false voter lists, in others there are voters whose identity could not be established or who voted for others and still a third category where the votes are said to have been stuffed in the ballot boxes by agents of a particular candidate alleged to be Mr Karzai’s brother in some cases by Abdullah group.
There fore a sample recount may not be able to overcome the perception of fraud. It is apparent that to avoid a long period of instability the UN and the international community seems to have decided to get over with the elections process as early as possible so that the run off can be held if required this year prior to the winters or winner declared as the case may be. Will Abdullah Abdullah who is likely to be the loser in this bargain willing to compromise will determine the ultimate outcome of stability.
With the Afghan election results in limbo, the determination of many countries for staying on in the country would be impacted as this may seem a hopeless case where any investment would be negative. Thus the Taliban are likely to ensure that this sentiment is fostered across the board so that they gain advantage of wavering determination of states with limited support for deployment of troops in Afghanistan. The attack on Italian troops needs to be taken in that light and other NATO forces warned to avoid any adverse fall out.
US General Stanley McChrystal was concerned about increase in Indian influence thus, “Indian political and economic influence is increasing in Afghanistan, including significant development efforts and financial investment. In addition, the current Afghan government is perceived by Islamabad to be pro-Indian. While Indian activities largely benefit the Afghan people, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is likely to exacerbate regional tensions and encourage Pakistani countermeasures in Afghanistan or India.’’
The Prime Minister of India, Dr Manmohan Singh dispelled concerns that may have been expressed by the United States and European nations on Indian role in Afghanistan. In a Press Conference on his return trip from the G 20 Summit in Pittsburgh he stated, “The United States and other European countries have been very appreciative of the role that India has played in Afghanistan. We have not supplied any armed forces; we are there to assist Afghan people in reconstruction and development. We are helping to finance some of the most important projects in the area of power, road transport, health, education. Till today we have committed about 1.3 billion dollars. Not only the Government and the people of Afghanistan appreciated but whenever I have had an opportunity to discuss with the European leaders and the leaders of the United States, they have been of the same view”.
The present Indian engagement is primarily economic and development with low key security in terms of training. An opposing view seeks military presence. Most old hands know that combating militancy in an alien land is the toughest challenge as the Indian armed forces realized in Sri Lanka. The enormous good will that India has amongst the Afghan people is likely to evaporate due to natural antipathy that develops between counter militants and the populace subtly exploited by terrorists. A military “alliance” with forces following kinetic tactics as against the, “iron fist in velvet gloves” policy of the Indian Army will be hard to sustain at home.
India has welcomed successful holding of the Presidential and Provincial Council elections in Afghanistan on 20 August, 2009. Particularly the Afghanisation of the election process in which the elections were conducted by national institutions, unlike the previous elections has been appreciated. That this has led to fraud has however not been commented upon indicating the high degree of sensitivity to the Afghan sentiment unlike the comments made by Western governments and the media. The Indian Ministry of External Affairs has in fact welcomed the announcement of the preliminary results of all the votes counted by IEC in which President Hamid Karzai has emerged as the leading candidate having secured 54.62%, followed by Dr. Abdullah Abdullah at 27.75%.
India is hopeful that U.N.-backed panel investigating fraud in Afghanistan's presidential vote will carry out a review and declare the results. There are adverse comments on the sampling technique planned to review the votes. While sampling is an effective technique for opinion polls and other such measures, unless it is accepted by both the contending parties concerned, Abdullah Abdullah the main challenger and Hamid Karzai who has already passed the 50 percent mark and is likely to lose in case the sampling results do not go in his favour, it may create more problems.
Indian authorities feel that an unsatisfactory candidate would add to the overall political uncertainty that continues to prevail in Afghanistan. There is therefore a concern that this should be avoided by having a second round if required before the winters. While this is understandable, taking the two main contenders on board would be necessary which has to be done publicly so that no retraction is possible at a later stage. This alone can guarantee that the results will be free and fair and acceptable to all rather than what may seem like error chasing.
Remaining engaged in Afghanistan is important for India, for the spread of Al Qaeda and the Taliban will destabilize an already unstable region. Given the current strategic configuration, aid and trade appears the key tools of engagement. Sharing our extensive counter militancy experience is another important facet. Our experience gives us an opportunity to speak and write more on Afghanistan contributing positively to the general debate. Three years, from 2006 when militancy commenced in earnest to date, is a short period in an insurgency where success is measured in terms of decades rather than years.
[Rahul K Bhonsle is a veteran soldier who has had a distinguished service career of over 30 years, during which period he has served with distinction in the Indian Army in all its outposts and operations. During this period he has had a wide and varied exposure to a number of important operational, training, logistics and academic assignments. He has simultaneously pursued a career in professional research and writing which has seen resulted in publication of over one score books, numerous articles and papers in reputed national and international journals and web sites. His academic qualifications include an M Phil in Defense and Management Studies and a MBA. He specializes in strategic and human security and future warfare. His latest book, “India Security Scope : 2006 The New Great Game” has been well received. Apart from his creative pursuits, Rahul is running an independent research agency, Security-Risks.com, which is dealing with strategic risk and knowledge management services in Delhi.]
-Sri Lanka Guardian
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Afghanistan: The Indian view
Indo Pak: Beyond Sharm El Sheikh
"The main problem was the Joint Statement where mention of Balochistan and delinking talks with control of terror by Pakistan has not been politically accepted in India, thereby isolating Mr Man Mohan Singh."
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By Col. Rahul Bhonsle
(September 04, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Looking beyond Sharm El Sheikh India’s commitment to a dialogue with Pakistan has been reiterated from time to time. Engaging and normalizing relations with Islamabad is accepted as vital to India’s interests, however despite the same, when that happens will depends on two factors -
Factor 1- The political situation in Pakistan with confrontation between Pakistan People’s Party and the principal opposition, Nawaz Sharif’s Muslim League has come out in the open with Saudi mediation preventing a conflagration. The so called Minus One formula to remove Mr Zardari and charging former President Musharraf with treason is engaging the political space. Thus any major foreign policy initiative is not likely and dialogue with India may not be on the top priority. Till the situation stabilizes it is unlikely that we see positive momentum in this sphere.
Factor 2 – Action against perpetrators and conspirators of the terror strike in Mumbai by Islamabad is essential. A public perception that Pakistan is not to allowing its territory to be used in any manner for terrorist activities against India alone can lead to further improvement in communications between the two countries.
Thus despite an open invitation, Indian Foreign Secretary Ms Nirupama Rao is not likely to go to Islamabad as it is her turn now to visit the Pakistani capital and the first time she meets her counterpart, Salman Bashir may be in New York. This meeting is likely to be dry and not much is likely to emerge between Ms Rao and Mr Bashir, as the latter is seen in India as a hard liner supporting the ISI-Army line of confrontation.
On the other hand Pakistan Foreign Minister Mr Qureshi is generally inclined for a rapprochement and is in the Zardari faction which favours dialogue with India. This group is marginalized at present within the Pakistani establishment. Thus while the two foreign ministers, Mr S.M. Krishna and Shah Mahmood Qureshi may meet on the side lines of the UN General Assembly, nothing substantial is likely to emerge particularly as the Indian External Affairs Minister is yet to form his own views on Indo Pakistan relations and therefore is expected to toe the line of the Prime Minister.
The earliest opportunity for a summit level dialogue now appears to be during the Commonwealth summit in Trinidad in end November when Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh could meet the President or the Prime Minister of Pakistan. This time around no, “Joint Statement” would be expected given the faux pas of Sharm el Sheik which is now seen as a “discontinuity” in dialogue.
The main problem was the Joint Statement where mention of Balochistan and delinking talks with control of terror by Pakistan has not been politically accepted in India, thereby isolating Mr Man Mohan Singh. The Balochistan entry surprised many but should not have, most likely the subject would have been broached by Mr Zardari when he met Prime Minister Man Mohan Singh at Yekaterinburg on 16 June but that time as we all know there was no breakthrough. Possibly the Indian Prime Minister led himself to believe that India could call the bluff that it was not directly involved in Balochistan. This was a serious miscalculation and has had a number of major political setbacks for the Congress in general and the Prime Minister in particular apart from setting back the process of talks with Pakistan
There is increasingly a feeling in some quarters that scuttling Indo Pakistan dialogue was the principal objective of the Pakistani interlocutors in Sharm el Sheikh. They knew very well the mood in India and shifting the blame for not talking to New Delhi was necessary to give them adequate space not to act against Hafeez Saeed and other LeT operatives. They seem to have achieved this aim with India placed on the defensive.
Dr Man Mohan Singh seems to have realized that unless he is able to force Pakistan to deliver on terror he will not be able to build the atmosphere at home for a possible compromise. It also appears that while redefining Indo US relations was his principal focus in his first tenure, Indo Pakistan rapprochement may be the lynch pin for the second and all Prime Minister’s want to leave behind a legacy howsoever faulted it may be later, thus for Narsimha Rao it was opening of the economy, for Vajpayee the nuke tests for Manmohan Singh I – the Indo US nuclear deal and Manmohan Singh II may be now aiming at Indo Pak détente.
Progress in the Mumbai probe and trial will be the key metrics for the same. Demonstration of Pakistani willingness to act against those still seeking to target India is another and finally action against terror infrastructure the third. When translated in concrete objectives, action by Pakistan against Hafeez Saeed, LeT chief, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Retired Colonel R. Saadat Ullah, Zarar Shah and Abu Al Qama will be the first steps in this direction.
However given the internal problems in Pakistan any government which acts against Hafeez Saeed in particular is not likely to survive so India may have to downgrade the demand to action against others, Zaki-ur-Rehman Lakhvi, Saadat Ullah, Zarar Shah and Abu Al Qama
Until then expect other secondary fields as Climate change and trade to be some notable exceptions of Indo Pakistan congruence.
-Sri Lanka Guardian
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Elections: A salute to the Afghan people
By Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
(August 26 New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Millions of brave Afghans defied the Taliban to cast their ballots on 20 August in the country's second national elections since Taliban rule. At least 26 people were killed in election-related violence. Estimated 40 to 50 percent of the country's 15 million registered voters cast ballots — far lower than the 70 percent who voted in the presidential election in 2004. 6,202 polling centers — 95 percent of those planned were opened.
The elections once again proved that despite the threats by the Taliban the democratic urge of the Afghan remains strong. With Taliban declaring its intent of disruption, protecting the electorate was difficult as 76 per cent of the population lives in remote and electorally critical areas. As per the Afghan interior ministry map, 10 of Afghanistan’s 364 districts are colored black or under Taliban control and 156 are considered high risk areas. The Taliban struck at 73 places in Afghanistan in 15 provinces, demonstrating their reach, but the Elections went on. The Election Day attacks killed eight Afghan soldiers, nine police and nine civilians.
The main contestants in the Presidential elections were well known figures in Afghan politics. While campaigning was intense, the results were said to be determined by support of local power brokers who delivered large blocks of votes to the candidates who wooed them. President Karzai the incumbent is thus accused of having struck deals with disreputable tribal leaders, including Abdul Rashid Dostum, Mohammed Qassim Fahim, Jan Mohammad and Gul Agha Sherzai for winning over their voting blocks.
Abdullah Abdullah, Karzai's former foreign minister, a candidate of the National Front and is part Pashtun and part Tajik. The Front is obliged to the Tajiks and other non-Pashtuns of the Northern Alliance. Ramazan Bashardost, a Hazara has no political affiliation. The candidate coming in fourth as per opinion polls is Ashraf Ghani, a Pashtun has an anthropology doctorate from Columbia University is a technocrat and a former World Bank official, who was Karzai's finance minister between 2002 and 2004.
The United States of America, State Department release on 17 August claimed that it did not support or oppose any particular candidate. Most significantly it stated, “ We call on candidates and their supporters to behave responsibly before and after the elections. Finally, we look forward to working with whomever the Afghan people select as their leaders for the next five years”.
There was a high turnout in 70% of the provinces with reportedly good participation in rest 30% of the country with a difficult insurgency. "We are satisfied with the participation of our people in the elections", the country's Interior Minister, Hanif Atmar, said at a press conference. UN Secretary General Mr. Ban Ki-moon congratulated the Afghan people in advance thereby indicating which way the election credibility will be in the days ahead. NATO Secretary-General, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, has declared Afghanistan elections "a security success". US President Mr. Obama praised Afghans for coming out to vote thus, "I was struck by [voters'] courage in the face of intimidation and their dignity in the face of disorder," Mr. Obama said. "There is a clear contrast between those who seek to control their future at the ballot box and those who kill to prevent that from happening."
The Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) said it had received 225 allegations of irregularities in the presidential and provincial council polls. ECC Chairman Grant Kippen, addressing a news conference in Kabul, said the complaints lodged with them included tampering with ballot boxes, voter intimidation, multiple and proxy voting, as well as ballot-box stuffing. Most of the complaints, some of which could affect the outcome of the historic vote, were received from Kandahar, Ghazni, Maidan Wardak and Kunduz provinces.
Initial outcome has shown two trends, Mr. Karzai is leading so far with a huge margin of votes at 71 percent and there are also allegations of major fraud and rigging. In case this trend continues and Mr. Karzai wins in the first round, the Abdullah camp his closest rival may even plan Iran style protest rallies in the country, though the level of political sophistication seen in Tehran is lacking in Kabul and democratic protests are unlikely to be as effective.
What is clear is that Mr. Karzai would have won with the support of some tribal leaders whose credentials are dubious and he would be hostage to them in the future. Secondly these leaders were formerly associated mostly with the Northern Alliance, hence Pashtun support to his re-election will be limited and Taliban may oppose him strongly.
On the other hand Mr. Karzai has shown his capacity to manage and manipulate the politics in Afghanistan mainly based on tribal loyalties and leadership control. This factor may provide him the necessary impetus to win over some of the Taliban as well.
Thus with incumbent President Karzai set to return to power in Kabul, it is time for many who did not want him to succeed press the reset button and that includes the United States. Elections are being hailed by all world leaders as a success including the UN Secretary General and the Indian Minister of External Affairs, given that India is generally not inclined to make any remarks on the internal affairs of a country.
The main problems appear to be two fold, a lower turnout would reduce the legitimacy of the elections particularly if it is in the south, then there is a degree of excision of the majority Pashtun community and therefore their acceptance of the results is also suspect. On the other hand there is a fear that the candidates particularly the losing one may create an Iran like situation which would be inherently destabilizing for Kabul.
“The possibility of a Kenya or a Zimbabwe or an Iran looms large,” warned Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, “We know what the costs of those types of outcomes are,” Ghani told POLITICO in a telephone interview from Kabul. “And those scenarios need to be discussed and avoided, because it is still at a moment where — with the right policies and approach and focus — we can avoid that kind of outcome.”
The lower turnout could also be attributed to public apathy with the Afghan leadership mired in years of corruption and tribal power politics which has seen the country slip into anarchy over the years despite a relatively stable Presidency being voted in 2004 with 55 percent of the vote
U.S. officials are also now strategizing about how to persuade Afghan President Hamid Karzai to overhaul his government, which was viewed as corrupt and ineffectual, if he wins a second term. They are expected to push for stronger local and provincial councils as a counterweight to Kabul. A similar strategy was used successfully in Iraq, where some provincial governments were given authority and resources to address needs of villagers who felt neglected.
In the larger context though the election is not just a contest for Afghanistan's powerful Presidency but one between the Taliban and the Coalition.
-Sri Lanka Guardian
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Countering LTTE’s revival strategy
“Then the diaspora organizations are recuperating. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan in charge of the Dept of Diaspora Affairs who has been controlling the overseas network of the organization may proclaim himself as the new leader or may even operate incognito given the increased threat of apprehension and continue to revive the organization abroad.”
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By Col. Rahul Bhonsle
(August 16, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) A singular lesson from defeating rebellions in modern times is that the death of a guerrilla movement occurs with extinction of its ideology and not merely its leadership and military organization. A second truth is that there is a very short time gap between neutralization of the armed force and successful political resolution of a conflict which can facilitate total extermination of an insurgency.
The Sri Lankan leadership political and military would do well to take note of these truisms as they grapple through the maze of processes to restore normalcy in the Northern half of the country. While military defeat of the LTTE has been followed up by neutralizing attempts by the diaspora for revival with apprehension of Selvarasah Pathmanathan or KP, its so called Secretary General, concrete steps towards a political solution to the vexatious Tamil dissension are not evident.
The government is now focusing on resettlement of the Internally Displaced or IDPs and reviving the political processes within the Tamil dominated areas by holding elections in the North just as it had done in the East. This two pronged approach is being possibly followed up with assuaging of Sinhala sentiment to prepare it for a rapprochement with the Tamils with possible resistance both from the conservative right wing as well as the left parties.
Under the circumstances Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa is said to have opted for a wait and watch approach till he is able to win a second term to office in elections which could be held some time in the beginning of next year as indicated by media reports and comments by close observers of the situation as Col R Hariharan. This would indicate that serious consideration of proposals under the now famous 13th amendment and 13 + or 13 ++ will begin some time in the middle of next year almost one year after decimation of LTTE military presence on the Island.
This gap may prove critical given that the LTTE retains its diaspora arms and the separatist sentiment remains insatiated both in the Tamil north as well as abroad. Thus while KP’s apprehension and subsequent interrogation may provide the government and intelligence much information, the Tamil Ealam issue remains open ended for too long for exploitation by its protagonists. Here are some trends which are ominous.
Firstly the recent elections in Jaffna and Vavuniya Municipal councils held on 08 August saw a low turnout virtually heeding the call for boycott by the LTTE exiles led by KP who was then free. The results also indicated some support for the Tamil National Alliance [TNA] affiliated parties.
While the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance secured a majority of 13 seats of the 23-member Jaffna Municipal Council receiving 50.67% votes, TNA constituent, Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) won eight seats with 38.28% of the votes. In Vavuniya ITAK secured a majority of seats in the Vavuniya Urban Council with 34.81 percent votes. This could act as the trigger for revival of the TNA even as moderate leaders as Anandsangaree of the TULF could barely manage to win their own seat, thereby indicating which side the wind is blowing.
Then the diaspora organizations are recuperating. Sivaparan alias Nediyavan in charge of the Dept of Diaspora Affairs who has been controlling the overseas network of the organization may proclaim himself as the new leader or may even operate incognito given the increased threat of apprehension and continue to revive the organization abroad.
The diaspora is wide spread across many countries and though demoralized can be revived with concerted efforts which the LTTE operatives are well capable. Moreover little is so far known about post May 2009 activities of the Aiyanna Group which facilitated “financial support and revenue streams”, of the organization abroad as per a Jane’s report of 2007.
Then there are numerous news reports of arrests and apprehensions inside the Island including a van containing 20 claymore mines of 5 kgs each in Mannar whose driver was mysteriously released, a women suicide bomber lurking in Colombo and a high power bomb inside a culvert in Mahiyangana. So far intelligence has been forthcoming and a mishap has been averted, yet this indicates the strong resolve and residual capacity of remnants of the LTTE to trigger a major attack.
Recognizing the need for a speedy political solution India and the United States seem to be making concerted efforts to convince the Sri Lankan government as well as Tamil diaspora. US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Robert Blake and U.S. Chargé d'Affaires in Sri Lanka James Moore are said to have held a dialogue with the Tamils in the US only recently. India is linking more aid to an early political solution.
Yet flush after the recent military victory and an intelligence one of arrest of KP, the Sri Lankan government seems to be following a strategy of holding elections, resettling the IDPs and development of the North and the East which will not be enough for the core issue of assuaging Tamil aspirations remains unaddressed.
A mid course correction by the President and his advisors may therefore be in order for after a hard fought military victory an equally courageous political decision would be necessary and that too fast, for that alone can assure lasting peace on the Island before the LTTE is able to revive itself in the interregnum.
About Writer: Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle is a new columnist of the Sri Lanka Guardian. He is a veteran soldier who has had a distinguished service career of over 30 years, during which period he has served with distinction in the Indian Army in all its outposts and operations. During this period he has had a wide and varied exposure to a number of important operational, training, logistics and academic assignments. He has simultaneously pursued a career in professional research and writing which has seen resulted in publication of over one score books, numerous articles and papers in reputed national and international journals and web sites. His academic qualifications include an M Phil in Defense and Management Studies and a MBA. He specializes in strategic and human security and future warfare. His latest book, "India Security Scope : 2006 The New Great Game" has been well received. Apart from his creative pursuits, Rahul is running an independent research agency, Security-Risks.com, which is dealing with strategic risk and knowledge management services in Delhi. - Editor
KP apprehension: Blow to LTTE revival?
"There is no doubt that the apprehension of KP is likely to be a blow to revival of the LTTE for he had the right number of contacts and the financial clout to revive the organization in the diaspora community."
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By Col. Rahul K. Bhonsle
(August 12, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) The revival of the LTTE suffered a sharp blow with the apprehension of Mr Kumaran Pathmanathan popularly known as KP in Kuala Lumpur in what is likely to have been a joint operation between the intelligence agencies of Sri Lanka, Malaysia and India, though Indian role remains in the background given the sensitivity of Tamil sentiment. KP had been nominated as the secretary general of the post Prabhakaran LTTE and was increasingly assuming prominence with a suave media and internet campaign to revive the organization. These moves to revive the organization and the larger struggle for Tamil Ealam have thus suffered a temporary set back.
While the Sri Lankan government was rejoicing victory over the LTTE with the army commanders felicitated and the President planning a political rout of sorts holding elections in the provinces and possibly for the Presidency in early 2010, the LTTE diaspora was busy planning revival of the organization. A factional fight between Sivaparan alias Nediyavan, assistant of the political wing leader late Tamilchelvan, and KP was settled in the latters favour and KP was nominated as the “Thalamai Seyalar” (Secretary General) to lead the overseas LTTE organization.
Perinbayanagam Sivaparan alias Nediyavan, was a powerful overseas LTTE intelligence operative who was possibly left with holding the crumbs and may have been disgruntled.
The revived LTTE was to have a number of secretaries including human rights, resettlement, rehabilitation, reconstruction, peace building, development, negotiations, political action, policymaking, public relations, media relations, resource management etc as per noted Sri Lanka expert Col R Hariharan based in Chennai. Nediyavan was assuaged by making him in charge of the Department of Diaspora Affairs responsible for administration of the various LTTE branches and institutions of the Tamil Diaspora. With these happenings it was anticipated that the LTTE would soon start its agitations abroad and also re establish linkages in Tamil Nadu and Sri Lanka itself as the government there was diverted towards other issues.
KP was the main supplier of arms and ammunition of the organization and had an extensive network of legal as well as illegal businesses in South East Asia where he operated with impunity despite two red corner notices one by the Indian government for his role in assassination of former Indian Prime Minister Mr Rajeev Gandhi. KP is alleged to have procured weapons worth billions of dollars across Asia, Canada, US and Europe.
The Sri Lankan government was wary of such a happening and Sri Lankan Prime Minister Ratnasiri Wickremanayake had warned the Parliament that "another person was trying to mobilise the LTTE cadres to regroup." and that it would be dealt firmly.
Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa brother of President Mahinda Rajapaksa and a key strategist behind the defeat of the LTTE said that though the organization had been military crushed, attempts were being made to rescue hardcore fighters from refuge camps in the Vavuniya region. He warned that this could be part of an overall strategy to revive the organization in an interview with The Sunday Island. It was therefore apparent that the government was aware of the moves to revive the LTTE and was also possibly on the trail of KP.
KP was apprehended by intelligence agencies from a hotel in Kuala Lumpur. Trailing KP was not very difficult as he had been openly giving a series of interviews and was available to the media. He was meeting some other LTTE diaspora members when he was ostensibly called out of the hotel room and swooped away under circumstances which are not clear at present except that he was immediately moved to Colombo indicating that there has been cooperation at the intelligence and government level between the countries.
Some reports say that KP was possibly betrayed by a rival faction who was not happy with his dominating presence in such a short time. Other reports indicate a tip-off from Indian intelligence agencies given their interest in his case in the wake of his involvement in the Rajeev Gandhi assassination. The expatriate Sri Lankan Tamil community in Kuala Lumpur also indicated that KP was arrested by Malaysian agencies, whisked away to Bangkok, and from there to Colombo. As a loyalist of Prabhakaran, KP was seen to be well placed to lead the movement however his high profile had also invited a number of enemies within the organization, leading to disconcert.
There is no doubt that the apprehension of KP is likely to be a blow to revival of the LTTE for he had the right number of contacts and the financial clout to revive the organization in the diaspora community. However given his life style of extravagance, openly reclaiming the position while being hunted on red corner notices made him extremely vulnerable, thus his apprehension was possibly inevitable, given that he emerged from the role of an underground operative to that of a semi over ground leader.
File image: KP at ‘Kadalpura’ boat with senior leader Kumarappa and other cadres in 1987
However this setback to the LTTE revival may be only temporary. For there are other leaders as Nediyavan waiting in the wings who may have even gone to the extent of giving out the location of KP to the intelligence agencies to quietly settle their battle for supremacy in the organization. Thus as far as leadership of the organization a new one possibly, Nediyavan may now assume the mantle of the Secretary General.
Two other factors are important for the organization to resume its activities. Support from Indian leaders from Tamil Nadu as Vaiko who are favourable towards the revival but have not indicated any inclination to support any group so far and the recovery of the organization or its political roots in Sri Lanka. The Tamil National Alliance the political front supporting the LTTE is in disarray and would have to be rejuvenated. This will be also followed up by possible regrouping of the cadres of the outfit who are now in some of the camps and under screening.
The elections to the Jaffna and Vavuniya Municipal councils held yesterday (08 August) also indicated that the people have not fully accepted the military verdict of defeat of the LTTE and there is support for Ealam in a tacit form with voting registering a low 20 percent possibly giving heed to the call by the held LTTE political head, Mr Patmanathan for a boycott.
The results also indicated some support for the TNA affiliated parties. While the ruling party United People's Freedom Alliance secured a majority of 13 seats of the 23-member Jaffna Municipal Council receiving 50.67% votes, TNA constituent, Illankai Tamil Arasu Kadchi (ITAK) won eight seats with 38.28% of the votes. In Vavuniya ITAK secured a majority of seats in the Vavuniya Urban Council with 34.81 percent votes.
Thus the Sri Lanka government would have to take notice of these trends and settle for a swift political solution that may provide succor to the Tamils taking away the urge for separatism, for KP or not, LTTE is slowly but surely showing early signs of revival. A political solution however appears to be a tall order at present as the government is facing stiff resistance from the Sinhala community in the south.
[Rahul K Bhonsle is a veteran soldier who has had a distinguished service career of over 30 years, during which period he has served with distinction in the Indian Army in all its outposts and operations. During this period he has had a wide and varied exposure to a number of important operational, training, logistics and academic assignments. He has simultaneously pursued a career in professional research and writing which has seen resulted in publication of over one score books, numerous articles and papers in reputed national and international journals and web sites. His academic qualifications include an M Phil in Defense and Management Studies and a MBA. He specializes in strategic and human security and future warfare. His latest book, “India Security Scope : 2006 The New Great Game” has been well received. Apart from his creative pursuits, Rahul is running an independent research agency, Security-Risks.com, which is dealing with strategic risk and knowledge management services in Delhi.]
-Sri Lanka Guardian
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