“If any delays or serious reversals are expected in the northern military front, it could have serious problems for the government. The state of affairs of the LTTE is pathetically weak, which is its own making. Its present predicament is due to its arrogance and its downright idiosyncratic attitude of considering itself bigger than the Tamil people.”
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(August 03, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Last years budgetary process in Sri Lanka exposed the difficulties the government had to face to muster a simple majority to approve its Finance Bill. With extensive political manoeuvring and with the help of the ducking and diving JVP, the budget was approved by the parliament and it gave the respite of life for the present parliament for another year.
What is stored for this year? Unlike last year, the parliamentary JVP is spilt in the middle and horse trading with these two nationalists has become more and more difficult and the budgetary process is expected to go though another bashing process worse than last year.
The government is heavily betting on the defeat of the LTTE in Killinochchi and Vanni. The euphoric comments from the government quarters confirm that the government wants a decisive victory. The fast progressing military advances is aimed to achieve this before the presentation of the budget by the President who is also the Finance Minister.
If all goes well as expected in the military front, the government is expected to have an easy ride in the parliament with parties like both euphoric JVP and its breakaway Weeranwanse faction dilly dally dancing over the victory to give unquestionable support to the government.
If any delays or serious reversals are expected in the northern military front, it could have serious problems for the government. The state of affairs of the LTTE is pathetically weak, which is its own making. Its present predicament is due to its arrogance and its downright idiosyncratic attitude of considering itself bigger than the Tamil people.
It must be also remembered an injured tiger is a dangerous tiger. It is widely expected that the weakened LTTE will respond in kind by its terror tactics to score points to hold on to its controlling stakes in the politics of Sri Lanka. Any such acts could impact on the present status quo on the military front and will have wide ranging consequences for the survival of the present government. The present euphoric mood of the Sinhala nationalist parties will go through a process of acrimonious politics and the budget approval process will further endanger the survival of the government.
Despite sky rocketing cost of living due to international economic factors and the escalating cost of the war efforts of the government, there seems no uproars in the South against the government. The government has skilfully packaged its war efforts and the Sinhala masses too are convinced that Rajapakse brothers are going to defeat the LTTE once and for all and will bring everlasting peace in Sri Lanka.
Any change in the direction of the war will have unnerving consequences for country. The immediate casualty will be the survival of the present parliament. Passing the Finance Bill in November 2008 appears at present to be a cocktail of uncertainties and the political pundits close to the government are privately saying that the President is even prepared to dissolve the parliament if things go really bad for him.
The people in Sri Lanka are facing uncertain time ahead. An outright victory that the Southern Sinhala masses are expecting could put Mahinda Rajapakse as Sinhala Rajaya. He may use his strength even to dissolve the parliament and go for elections to increase his stakes in the National State Assembly. Any military reversals to the contrary too could pave the way for general election due to government’s inability to secure majority needed to pass the budget.
- Sri Lanka Guardian
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