What will be Prabakaran’s trap today?

“No matter what Prabakaran is planning to say today in his speech, he should be in the know that if he does not get the Rajapaksha administration trapped in a ceasefire somehow, his future looks certainly bleak.”

by Nacholibre

(November 27, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) It is more than evident that Prabakaran cannot stop the SL military’s forward march in their current, victorious stride. Yet he is desperate to halt the military avalanche one way or the other because, if he does not, tomorrow will probably be the last day he will make his infamous hero’s day speech.

Prabakaran has tried a few times this year to get the GOSL to reciprocate a ceasefire. He tried unilateral ceasefires, writing to UN and waking up the LTTE moles in the guise of Tamilnadu politicians to push India to intervene and call for a ceasefire but failed in each of his attempts. The result of his inability to lure the current Sri Lankan people’s administration in to a death trap of a ceasefire saw him losing most of his vital strongholds in Wanni on a roll, without which he would not be able to wage a successful military campaign against the state anymore. Moreover, the situation for him is worsening by the day.

From the point of view of State armed forces, to incapacitate the LTTE from waging another successful war against the State, the LTTE should be denied all its strategic bases and military prowess and destroy its higher command including its leader. Nothing short of that would ensure lasting solution of any sort, however nice it may seem on paper.

No matter what Prabakaran is planning to say today in his speech, he should be in the know that if he does not get the Rajapaksha administration trapped in a ceasefire somehow, his future looks certainly bleak. No amount of rhetoric by him would stop the military tsunami that is coming at him and his terror empire, threatening his sheer survival on this planet. Thus, amidst a lot of rubbish and ballyhoo with time tested verbiage like Tamil genocide and Sinhala chauvinism and LTTE’s resolve to fight for Tamil people’s liberation, which are designed just to make the Elam stakeholders happy, Prabakaran must also make some dramatic change of approach during his speech that would cause the GOSL to be taken off guard and pushed into a corner that would do the trick for him i.e., trap the State into calling a ceasefire.

The million dollar question here is, if he plans to do just that today, what would he have up his sleeve?

I am wondering if it is not possible at all that Prabakaran could say in his speech tomorrow that for the good of the civilians, he is ready for a ceasefire with a third party mediation by a country like India or Norway or both, with a view to initiating talks with the State towards power sharing. In addition, he may emphasize that, as pre-condition, all military operations should stop.

It may well be that this assumption is a long shot but nevertheless, what if he actually declares so? Is Sri Lanka ready for another round of walking around the mulberry bush and facing escalation of hostilities once Prabakaran sees the time is ripe for him to abandon all talks and go on the offensive yet again, when our Military is on the verge of a complete military victory over the LTTE as of now?

On the other hand, if Prabakaran does offer something like this tomorrow, the international LTTE sympathizers in the guise of various rights and media organizations would promptly begin portraying him as the messenger of peace and the State as the messenger of war, thereby vilifying the government and pressurizing the State to reciprocate and halt all military operations.

Do we have an answer to Prabakaran’s trap (however impossible the assumption may seem), if he finally decides to set it in his speech today?

I would like to think we have. It is that the State should not accept any ceasefire of any shape unless Prabakaran himself offers to lay down arms and surrender all the leaders and cadre of LTTE and all its strategic bases to the Sri Lankan armed forces without conditions. If the LTTE leader refuses to pledge that and keeps beating around the bush, let the SL armed forces answer him as they have been answering him since he closed Mavil aru sluice gates, because with Prabakaran, there would be no solution as long as he and his terror deputies live. - Sri Lanka Guardian