Yemeni anti-goverment protesters shout slogans during a demonstration demanding the resignation of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh in the capital Sanaa, Yemen, on April 3,2011. UPI/Mohammed Abdallah
by Sara Carter
(April 23, Washington DC, Sri Lanka Guardian)Violent uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa, coupled by strained relations between the Untied States and Pakistan, are overwhelming American counterterrorism efforts aimed at al Qaeda, giving the terrorist organization breathing room to plan attacks on the West, intelligence analysts and military officials say.
Upheaval in Libya, Egypt, Yemen, Syria and other Muslim nations has dislodged or distracted some of the U.S. allies who once helped the intelligence community, from Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to his counterpart in Yemen, Ali Abdullah Saleh.
Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official who headed the Obama administration's Afghanistan-Pakistan review last year, said, "in the short term the upheavals in the Arab world are a big setback for counterterrorism against al Qaeda and its allies."
Riedel said deposed or endangered officials like ex-Vice President of Egypt Omar Sulaiman, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi's defected Foreign Minister Musa Kusa and embattled President Saleh of Yemen and Syrian leader Bashar Assad "fought al Qaeda ruthlessly," said Riedel, who is now a senior analyst at the Brookings Institution.
"Now they are gone or going," he added. "Who ever replaces them will not be as effective, at least at first. Al Qaeda has in its own words 'great expectations' that it can exploit this opening."
Al Qaeda leaders have made it clear they intend to seize the opportunity. In their latest March issue of Inspire Magazine, American born cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, writes "the outcome doesn't have to be an Islamic government for us to consider what is occurring to be a step in the right direction. Whatever the outcome is, our mujahideen [holy warrior] brothers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and the rest of the Muslim world will get a chance to breathe again after three decades of suffocation."
Alix Levine, a counterterrorism expert and director of research at security consulting firm Cronus Global said, "[Al Qaeda's] response to this pressing question is very strategic -- they approve of peaceful demonstrations as long as violence is not ruled out -- proving that they care about the people while still not criticizing the message inherent to their ideology."
Strained relations with Pakistan have also damaged counterterrorism efforts against al Qaeda and the Taliban. One U.S. official said that Pakistan's demands to cut off drone strikes and remove special forces and CIA officers from the region is a huge setback at a time "when we need to be working together to dismantle and kill" al Qaeda.
Current counterterrorism analysts agree that the global crisis has directly affected their ability to gain momentum on al Qaeda since uprisings began in January.
There is no doubt that terrorists are planning major attacks against the West, particularly al Qaeda in Yemen, whose goal is to achieve the same status of the main al Qaeda leadership," said an American consultant who works with U.S. and British counterterrorism units.
He said relations with counterterrorism officials in Yemen, Egypt and other parts of the Middle East have been shattered by regional chaos and new ones being forged may or may not prove trustworthy.
Jim Phillips, senior analyst at the Heritage Foundation and North African expert said "political turmoil in the Arab Middle East definitely has damaged counterterrorism cooperation in the short run," particularly in Egypt and Yemen.
Mubarak's regime took a hard line against Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaeda and other Islamist terrorist groups. Without the deposed Egyptian president's security apparatus in place, those terrorist organizations have one less significant enemy to worry about.
"A key ally for the U.S. in the war against terrorism was removed," he said. "It is unlikely that Egypt's next government will be as cooperative as Mubarak was in combating these groups, particularly Hamas, which is an outgrowth of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood."
When Yemen's Saleh is removed, as appears almost inevitable, the United States and its allies will lose significant ground against al Qaeda, experts said. A partner once considered vital in American efforts to contain Yemen's al Qaeda branch will have to be replaced. "Al Qaeda in Yemen poses one of the most dangerous threats to the U.S. homeland," Phillips said.
While the tumult in the region presents short-term headaches for American counterterrorism efforts, it could lead to an eventual triumph for the West in its war against Islamic extremism, Riedel said.
There is a possibility that the revolutions will produce effective governments, he added. "Then al Qaeda is in trouble. More popular and legitimate governments will undermine al Qaeda's appeal. But that is in the long run. It does not help us in 2011."
Sara A. Carter is The Washington Examiner's national security correspondent. She can be reached at scarter@washingtonexaminer.com.
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