| by Jehan Perera
( April 29, 2013, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Speaking at a public meeting President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared he would hold the Northern Provincial Council election by September, but on a day to be given by his astrologer to ensure victory. “My astrologer gives me a winning time and I will decide on the basis on what he says,” the President said. The most obvious message coming from this speech is that the long delayed Northern election will finally be held. In making this declaration the President once again demonstrated his deep understanding of the ethos of the electorate he cultivates. The reference to his astrologer’s prediction has set the stage for the popular imagination to more than half believe that another governmental victory is already in the making.
President Rajapaksa has repeatedly assured those in the international community who have been pressing him on the issue of these elections, that they will be held by September this year. He has made this promise specifically to the Indian and Japanese prime ministers and the most recent resolution of the UN Human Rights Council has also noted the September election. However, those who are inclined to political speculation would see two other messages in the President’s speech. One is that the government is giving itself the flexibility to postpone the elections if the President’s astrologer does not find a suitable date in September.
Already two constituent parties of the government have expressed their opposition to these elections being held. The All Ceylon Muslim League headed by Minister Rishard Bathiudeen has objected to the elections being held until all war-displaced Muslims are resettled in the Northern Province. The National Freedom Front headed by Minister Wimal Weerawansa .has stated that these elections could lead to an outcome that is detrimental to the country’s unity. He has also said that the system of provincial councils should be scrapped and replaced by district councils. Interestingly, President Rajapaksa himself articulated this vision of innocuous district-based devolution several years ago until local and international pressure caused him to withdraw from this position.
Northern Elections
The government’s reluctance to hold the Northern Provincial elections reflects its concern that it will pave the way to the establishment of an opposition Tamil-led administration with a democratic mandate. This can lead to two legitimate voices emanating from the country to the international community. So far the government’s chief response to its local and international critics has been that it is the sole elected authority in the country entitled to speak on behalf of the people. Every time it wins an election it reminds its detractors that whatever they may say, it has the democratic sanction of the people. An opposition and Tamil led provincial administration in the North would have an equal legitimacy to speak on behalf of the people who elected it.
However, too much is at stake for the government to now seek to either abolish the provincial council system or postpone the promised September elections. The President’s promise to hold the elections by September this year is noted in too many international documents, such as the joint communiqué signed by the Prime Minister of Japan and President Rajapaksa following his visit in March to Japan, and also in the UN Human Rights resolution on Sri Lanka passed by a big majority of countries in March this year. Any postponement of the elections would also be seized upon by those who oppose the holding of the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting in Sri Lanka in November this year.
There is also the second interpretation of the astrologer’s prediction. It is that the selection of the correct date will be victory assured to the government. The acts of violence that have started taking place against opposition activities in the North, as occurred with the Uthayan newspaper and TNA meeting, can be a harbinger of things to come. As in the case of the impeachment of Chief Justice Shirani Bandaranayake in the run up to the UN Human Rights Council session in March, the government may believe that neither local nor international concerns can stand in the way of the government asserting its claim to total victory and total control.
Outside Control
However, unlike in the case of the impeachment, where the entire process was under the control of the government, the electoral process for the Northern elections will have more variables that are outside of governmental control. So far the government has relied upon the electoral support of the majority of people and political passivity of the opposition parties to do whatever it wants regardless of the costs. However, the government’s calculation regarding the lack of a forceful opposition is bound to collide with another reality that is not so weak – the international one. At the present time the government is on a confrontational course with some of the most powerful countries in the world. This confrontation is on the two fronts that are most important to these countries.
The stated moral basis of governance in the Western countries that Sri Lanka is now at loggerheads is human rights. Although the governments of Western countries are sometimes pragmatic about the human rights practices of their allies, such as in the Middle East, they are still ideologically committed to them. The main ground on which the Western countries are prepared to compromise on human rights is where it concerns their security and geopolitical concerns. Since the Middle Eastern allies of the Western countries are important to their geopolitical interests, they are muted in their condemnation of abuses of their allies. However, in Sri Lanka’s case, not only are the Western countries at loggerheads with the government on human rights issues, they are also concerned about the geopolitical implications of the government’s close relationship with China.
Therefore, it can be seen that the Sri Lanka is on collision course with the Western countries on the two issues that are of greatest importance to them. If Sri Lanka had been colliding only with one of these issues, it might have been able to hold its ground. But it is unlikely it can collide with both issues and still prevail. A recent study by a local organisation, Verite Research, has shown that “many of the countries that voted for the (UNHRC) resolution account for a significant share of Sri Lanka’s exports”. It also points out that the countries that voted against Sri Lanka accounted for 41 percent of Sri Lanka’s exports, but the countries that supported Sri Lanka accounted for only 10 percent. The study concludes that “Thumbing the nose at the UNHRC process may be good for the ego but not so good for the stomach”. It does not require the stars to foretell that Sri Lanka is on the wrong path.
 Speaking at a public meeting President Mahinda Rajapaksa declared...){kind=link}