The alchemy of peace

by Leo Panthera

(February 12, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) In the age before Lavoisier and the rise of modern chemistry, a mix of experimental science and sorcery was the ruling passion of those who investigated the wondrous workings of nature. Greed and venality being among the many unsavoury features of the human kind, it is no surprise to learn that the unlocking of the secrets of transmutation of metals was a favourite line of investigation by the so-called ‘Alchemists’. The alchemical scholars — including no less a person than the great Isaac Newton — were convinced that base metals (for example, Lead or Plumbium) could be changed or transmuted into Gold if the elusive agent (Philosopher’s Stone) involved in this metamorphosis could be tracked down. That these avaricious folk failed miserably is a historical fact that is little noticed today. We do, however have a new generation of ‘Alchemists’ or starry-eyed wonder workers who, like their fabled forebears seek the Philosopher’s Stone that will change the base ‘metallic’ instincts of a certain notorious Pirapaharan into the ‘gold’ of abiding peace that dwells beatifically in the soul of this once feared Killer of Mankind.

Has the Philosopher’s Stone that will transmogrify the soul of this Great Captain of Eelam been found? The stark form of this query may unsettle some of our readers — surely there is a mix-up of priorities here since the logically antecedent issue is the purported ‘injustice’ done to the Tamils. Conventional wisdom — the Peace Alchemists are superabundantly supplied with this precious distillate of the lessons of life — would urge us to attend to malaise in the rootstock before dealing with a malignancy in a branch or offshoot. In plain language, we must put first things first — Constitutional reform, nipping Proto-Eelamism in the bud by sanctioning Autonomous Homelands, prayerfully accepting the hallowed principle of Equal Opportunity, putting to rout Sinhala-Buddhist Nationalism as an All-Island Menace etc. — these bold ‘demarches’ will result in a withering of those rank and unpleasant pullulations of Tamil militancy that are so catastrophically evident today in Sri Lanka. With healing reforms and the rebellious proclivities dulled through magnanimous political gifts to the Tamils, will not Pirapaharan boogie-woogie in the Wanni without an audience? So argue the luminaries of the Anti-Majoritarian extravaganza that is currently being played out in this unhappy Island under the aegis of a strangely complaisant (and trichromatic — Blue, Green and Red) leadership. The argument is false on many counts, not the least of which is based on the science of system dynamics.

We started with a reference to chemistry and the forbearance of the reader is requested in the matter of a further (brief) foray within the same discipline. The Principle of Le Chatelier informs us that a system in dynamic equilibrium will rebound to make good the original state of affairs if ‘disturbed’ by a change in the conditions that dynamically influence it. The text-book formulation generally refers to gaseous systems but its illustration by reference to the Malthusian Paradigm will be more acceptable to those ill at ease with the abstractions of science. Briefly, Malthus argued that human populations in the ‘natural state’ are systems in dynamic equilibrium and attempts at ‘social re-engineering’ based on moral scruples are bound to fail because of intrinsic re-adjustments that restore the ‘status ante quo’. Let us suppose that the appalling massacre of the new-born (a feature of untouched populations) is meliorated by benevolent programmes of social action. The rate of natural increase of the population is boosted, overall numbers grow and there is a renewed run on resources. This will be counterbalanced by a return to the mortality rates that the do-gooders found disturbing in the first instance. Although Sri Lanka is currently escaping from the ‘logarithmic phase’ of population growth, there is no denying that the Spectre of Malthus hangs over us and its brooding presence is a significant factor in the genesis of our present troubles.

To the nub of matters now. Is it not true that the present stand-off between the National Army and the Terrorist Insurgency led by the redoubtable Pirapaharan (= Prabhakaran) represents a delicately poised System Equilibrium that largely conforms to the behavioral canon stated by Le Chatelier? Suppose the Government agrees to a Cessation of Hostilities as a gesture of extraordinary goodwill. It is obvious to the meanest wit (some Sinhala leaders excepted!) that Pirapaharan will order his men to infiltrate regions hitherto safe from terrorism and set an auspicious date for fresh attacks on the National Army with refurbished and modernized weaponry. The assumption here is that THE SYSTEM CHARACTER OF PIRAPHARAN’S INSURGENCY CANNOT CHANGE. Any ‘perturbation’ — be it political concession (peace deals etc.) or sustained military pressure will only cause an adjustment of the parameters of the conflict. Driven into the jungles of the Wanni by a military onslaught of a kind so far not seen in the tortured history of this conflict, it is possible that the Terrorist Problem will cease to be the all-destroying malignancy that it has become in a mere two decades. Conversely, the tomfoolery of soul-searching politicians, the importunate cacophony of the Peace Merchants and the unctuous guile of Foreign Powers hell-bent on destabilizing this unfortunate country can tilt things the other way. Concessions granted will have a run-away effect — the expanding dynamics of the insurgency will make strategic retreat the only option available to the Sinhalayas. The supposition here is that we will not get large-scale foreign assistance and that our stagnant economy will not be robust enough to sustain a war that ravages the entire Island. That we are friendless is very evident today. (A caveat must be added — the Tamils have friends a-plenty. The Sinhalayas alone remain forlorn and abandoned.) That we may soon become penniless is a fair guess.

The common error — tirelessly propagated by dim-witted politicians — is that the destitution and misery that could be our lugubrious lot in the years ahead flows tragically from the prosecution of an ‘unwinnable and horrible war’. The mere statement that the war is ‘unwinnable’ by those who share the command-structure of operations against the enemy has a disastrous recursive effect — so much so that a seeming unwinnable war may actually become unwinnable due to a calamitous sapping of the morale of those called upon to fight against the tyrant that menaces this hapless country. A first riposte to this unpatriotic nonsense is that military success and economic beatitude are not reciprocally coupled. Indeed the war can be a mighty boost to the economy of a country such as ours. That it has not happened is entirely the result of the lackadaisical way in which this mortal struggle against a determined enemy has been conducted. It should also be noted that the rate of economic growth is only very weakly correlated with public morals. These considerations aside, only fools of a rare order (alas, this species is abundant in Sri Lanka) will contend that after the ‘war’ is over, the army can be disbanded and the billions saved can be channeled to power our sluggish economic machine. The searing truth is that Sri Lanka will remain a nation in peril for decades to come and a powerful army will remain the indispensable bulwark for survival in world that cares little for our independence. Of what use is economic prosperity if our political stance is that of being belly-up in a setting where ruthless predators are free to peck at our entrails? Pirapaharan is not the first of this kind and he will surely have sturdy followers to test our will — and our preparedness to hit back.

Let us return to that fabulous object that mentioned above — the ‘Nai Gala’ (a.k.a. Philosophers Stone) that will turn the ‘Naia’ that is menacing us in the North into a contemptible ‘Garandiya’. All credit to the Storm-Troopers of the Peace-Brigade — they are dogged in their stance that Pirapahran’s Territorial Challenge is the Big Issue. We have Skeletal Lawyers with Bulging Brains and Bloated Political Poltroons in High Places who think that a Political Cocktail (a Package of Reforms) will lull the Tamils into a sonolency that may prove infectious — Pirapaharan may fall asleep as his armed minions bolt to freedom under a new and enlightened dispensation. That this is all baloney and a contemptible trickery is known to all except the ruling political priesthood. The issue that defies all attempts at resolution is the adamantine resolution of the man at the centre of all this — Pirapaharan. Can we have peace with this man? Will a thousand Hains, Foxes, Vikings, Nords and Nerds accomplish that miracle, that alchemical dream of changing base metal into gold? Given this system-stability of Pirapaharan’s insurgency, is it not a huge blunder and the pursuit of a chimerical dream, to promote the notion that man is at the end of his tether and ready for peace? Perhaps the taint of mortality that human flesh is heir to may bring about a sudden end to the man and his dream. A denouement devoutly to be wished.