“The role of external players to bring about political stability in Nepal is important. How this would come about remains to be seen for the political parties and the leadership are unwilling to compromise with one issue or the other cropping up from time to time.”______________
By Rahul K Bhonsle
(November 02, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) India and China are jockeying for space in South Asia and Nepal is offering them an ideal playground with the political deadlock over convening the Constitutional Assembly delayed by Maoists demand for, 'civil supremacy' post sacking and reinstatement of the former Chief of the Army Staff. While Mr Prachanda has just returned from Beijing where he has reportedly been advised to avoid instability as the word is anathema to Chinese Communist Party bosses, ambivalence is the Chanakyan political philosophy practiced by New Delhi. That the government is without money to pay its employees, Constitution drafting is delayed and there is a hold up as you travel across the country seems to be of no consequence to the Nepali leadership caught in a vortex of one up manship. While looking towards Beijing and New Delhi also does not seem to be paying any dividends as the two larger neighbours are embroiled in their own regional powerplay.
An appeal was made during a meeting of 18 ruling allies on 30 October chaired by Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal to the Maoists to avoid protest programmes which include blockade in Kathmandu. The Defence Minister Bidhya Bhandari on the other hand warned of army mobilisation to tackle the protests if they were violent. Chairman of Unified CPN (Maoist) Pushpa Kamal Dahal has directed his party cadres to not to indulge in violence during the agitation. Though what would be the impact of this appeal in the outlying areas of the country outside Dahal’s voice control remains to be seen. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has sought a national unity government. Ban said, "A Government of national unity remains desirable for timely promulgation of the country's new constitution and for the successful integration and rehabilitation of Maoist army personnel."
The problems of political reconciliation in Nepal thus continue as the Maoists have threatened to launch an agitation from 2 November in case no compromise is reached with the government. The situation remains challenging given that time is too short and there is no narrowing down of differences between the two sides the ruling coalition and the Maoists on the sacking and reinstatement of the former COAS. It is apparent that the Maoists would want a power sharing formula which has also a face saving component, which would have to be implemented with alacrity in case there is to be peace ahead.
Maoists hard line elements led by Mohan Vaidya and others have been insisting on Mr Prachanda not to compromise on core issues. Therefore it would be apparent that there are concerns that need to be addressed holistically to ensure that the proposed Jan Andolan or people’s agitations planned for 2 November and beyond does not happen for that would only increase the already strained political insecurities in the country. With conspiracy theories doing the rounds there are concerns that there would be another round of instability on the streets through which the Maoists may try to force the situation.
The Nepal political imbroglio is thus set on a disaster trail which has led to the government being unable to pay its employees including the ministers. The budget had to be sanctioned by the Constitutional Assembly by 7 October but is still in a limbo leading to the impasse over not just the political but also fiscal situation in the country. The government must use its powers to have a vote on account passed through an ordinance if required or compromise with the Maoists, for this is only leading to more instability in various tiers of governance thereby an already unstable and poor administration is suffering. It is therefore imperative that these issues be resolved early to avoid greater dissonance in the country.
However the Maoists are split in two groups, the first of hardliners as Mohan Vaidya and the other moderates led by party chairman Prachanda. It appears that on the issue of the Army Chief’s sacking both groups are of one view that an apology is necessary. The Mohan Vaidya faction of the Unified CPN M is likely to exercise pressure on Mr Prachanda and Mr Bhattarai seen as moderates to avoid a compromise with the ruling coalition in power as this faction is a votary of the revolutionary path. On the other hand, Prachanda and others have agreed to a compromise perhaps to create better conditions for a revolution. But this has led to continuing political stalemate in the country which is resulting in governance suffering in a major way. Therefore it would be important to resolve these issues for the time being to facilitate governance and take up the political differences later.
The return of Mr Dahal from China after reportedly political party level meetings in Beijing was expected to lead to a change of approach by the Unified CPN M but this apparently has not come about. While second in the party line, Mr Bhattarai has sought three options for resolution of the crisis, apology by the President, a parliamentary debate on civilian supremacy or a joint resolution on the president's move. These have been out rightly rejected by the Nepal Congress. That party is also going through a political crisis internally with the party cadres unhappy with the elevation of Ms Sujata Koirala to the office of the Deputy Prime Minister. Mr Nepal the Prime Minister had no option given the pressure from the party supremo Mr G P Koirala to elevate his daughter. Thus nepotism and division have riven Nepal politics where the parties would find it difficult to compromise in the days ahead.
The commencement of the process of resettlement of the Maoist fighters during the month was the only welcome development. After the Comprehensive Peace Agreement was signed in December 2006, this is the first time that there is some forward movement over discharge of personnel disqualified as fighters. This has made the need for ensuring smooth absorption in the society all the more important for there is a need to ensure that there is no return to the, “jungle” for these vulnerable elements.
The role of external players to bring about political stability in Nepal is important. How this would come about remains to be seen for the political parties and the leadership are unwilling to compromise with one issue or the other cropping up from time to time. Thus the EU, US, India and other countries would have an important role to steer the political parties towards a viable compromise including on the issue of sacking of the former Chief of the Army and subsequent reinstatement by the President. Now it appears that the issue is also stuck in the power struggle of who will be the Prime Minister.
Photo: Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapakse (C) steps out of a car during his arrival at the Tribhuvan International Airport in Kathmandu on October 29, 2009. President Mahinda Rajapakse arrived in Nepal for a three-day official visit.While a national unity government in Nepal is the way ahead, this is also fraught with problems given that there is unlikely to be any consensus over who will be the Prime Minister and what the ministerial portfolios will be. The problems with the nomination of Ms Sujata Koirala as the Deputy Prime Minister indicate that nepotism and parochialism will mark the process. Thus working out a power sharing agreement which will satisfy all parties and all leaders in Nepal is virtually impossible. -Sri Lanka Guardian
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