If Fonseka wins . . . .

The transition will be on a perilous knife edge

By Kumar David

(January 24, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Everybody who intends to vote has already made up his/her mind; canvassing the relative merits of candidates is no longer relevant. This is the time to steel ourselves for the weeks ahead and my topic today will be the more tension packed, attention-grabbing alternative. (I do not imply that it is the more likely as I am no soothsayer). In the event Rajapakse is defeated, ensuring a smooth transition of power becomes precarious though I do not expect Burma or Teheran style peril here. The Burmese dictatorship annulled Suu Kyi’s landslide (82%) 1990 election victory, threw her National League for Democracy leaders behind bars and confined her to 20 years of house arrest.

Whatever happens on 26 January a de facto military coup is not possible in Lanka since the slide to authoritarianism though serious and repugnant is still far from fascistic. Burma in 1990 had already been a military dictatorship for decades. There is no comparison.

What about Teheran? The Revolutionary Guard stuffed ballot boxes on a massive scale and manipulated the count by exercising armed control of the counting process. Thus the Guard morphed an Ahmadinejad landslide defeat into a fake Ahmadinejad landslide victory. Similar events are impossible in Lanka for two reasons. Firstly, though there may be stuffing of ballots, intimidation and impersonation on a yet to be seen scale, it is unlikely that fraud will reach Teheran like proportions. There is no all powerful intimidator like the Guard and the civilian election process in Lanka retains substantial autonomy. Second, and I believe more important, is that the worst of the election rigging for the 26 January event has already been done; its effects will be factored in, a priori, into the voting.

The flagrant abuse of state funds, resources and property, the brazen misconduct of the state media, the police and state machinery flouting the directives of the Elections Commissioner with impunity, and the feeding of the thousands at state run dansals that would have made Jesus Christ blush for his feeble efforts to feed a mere 5,000 in Galilee, this is electoral fraud on an scale unprecedented in Lanka. And it has already been done – finished! The moral equivalent of what Iran’s Revolutionary Guard did after the elections has already been done in Lanka, before the elections, by other means.

If Fonseka still wins, which he may since the outcome, people tell me, is still balanced on a knife edge, it implies that he would have won by a landslide had there been no fraud. The point I am making is that should the Fonseka camp be able to surmount abuses of state power on this scale and still win, then it is both impossible and too late to subvert a transition of power. In that red hot atmosphere the current regime will buckle promptly, before the streets erupt; many will take flight with their loot.

Expectations

Staying with the prospect of a Fonseka victory, some very tricky expectations will bubble up and will have to be controlled and channelled into lawful avenues. Not just ordinary folk but even a group of Tamil professionals in a statement released on Monday say: "Corruption has become deep and widespread; law and order and democratic civil institutions have been undermined; human rights have been violated on an unprecedented scale; and all this with impunity". The family tree of the ruling dynasty is astounding, and the public attitude to politicians has sunk to new depths of contempt. Therefore the public will, justifiably, demand investigation, prosecution and punishment.

Immediately upon assuming power, however, Fonseka (if he wins) is going to face a groundswell of anger demanding revenge. Under no circumstances must extrajudicial vengeance be permitted, there must be zero tolerance of lynching on the proverbial lamp post. How then to discipline this justified outburst of public anger? The only way to channel wrath into orderly avenues is to commence lawful investigation of alleged colossal commission payments and gigantic bribes paid to ministers and persons in high places. Alleged illegal instructions issued by police chiefs, the telecommunications regulator and other heads of departments must be probed. The whole backlog of crimes that have piled up must be addressed by due process; and I am emphasising ‘due process’, we do not want another bunch or rascals running amok.

Unless a new administration is seen to be taking resolute action, public wrath will turn against the new president himself. The question will be asked: "So why are you not ensuring that investigations and prosecution are moving? Are you now cutting a deal with yesterday’s crooks?" Public cynicism in this country is at its nadir, and a new administration will be given little time to establish its credentials.

A topic that I have not mentioned so far is war crimes, because neither victor will move on that matter. Both have skeletons in their cupboards and will be only too glad to follow the overwhelming Sinhala public mood and sweep war crimes allegations under the carpet. But it won’t be so easy with state inflicted human rights violations not specifically targeted at Tamils. To take a high profile example; what about the Lasantha case? What about some dozen journalists who have been murdered? I believe that this is going to be a very uncomfortable area for a putative Fonseka Administration! Nor will the war crimes issue go away; it will fester slowly, largely through the efforts of international human rights activists and the Tamil diaspora. The public, that is you and I, must remain unrelenting in our determination to have alleged war criminals, of whichever community or party, investigated and if a prima face case is made, prosecuted. It will, of course, be a long and slow process, so the topic is less relevant to today’s piece.

Whipping up racism

One of the most troubling developments that will follow a Rajapakse defeat, if this does happen, is the rabid racism that the UPFA will unleash. What other campaign slogan is the UPFA going to cash-in on, for the next general elections? The groundwork now being laid in describing the Fonseka-TNA understanding as treachery, as selling the country to the Demalas and plotting with the agents of the LTTE to divide the country is so déjà vu! We have been through it all in 1958, 1965 (LSSP and CP leaders joining in to chant thala thel and masala vadai), 1977, 1983, the 13th Amendment in 1987, the UNP’s patent racism in opposing the 2000 draft constitution, and more recently the sabotage of PTOMS and the Ceasefire.

This heady decoction of racism is the first and last resort of both the SLFP (now with the LSSP, CP and DLF in tow) and the UNP, when in a tight spot. And the UPFA will be in a terrible tight spot if Rajapakse loses the elections and investigation and prosecution of the mountain of crimes committed in the last four years commences. What is the UPFA’s headline slogan for the general election due soon going to be? With its back to the wall, it will return to the tried and tested slogan of racism – Fonsekai TNA-ekai ekkahuwela rata bedanna yanawa. The UPFA will have nothing, absolutely nothing else to croak and campaign about when the crimes and corruption of recent years come to light.

Unfortunately this is not the worst as I see it. The worst is that a new Fonseka-UNP Administration will have neither the guts nor the balls to stand up against such racism when the UPFA whips it up. The new government will cave in, if not capitulate completely – that is the story of every previous government which tore up pacts, abrogated agreements and pushed through racially biased constitutions because they lacked a spine to stand straight.

We already see the preliminary signs of caving in. What is the Fonseka camp’s response to the Mahinda camp’s attempt to whip up anti-Fonseka sentiments using the TNA’s presence as racist bait? "No, no we did not enter into any agreement with the Tamils. Who we? Perish the thought we will never do a deal with the bloody Tamils!" Whatever the wording, this in point of fact is the Sinhala-reassuring gist of their response. The Fonseka camp, like every non-Marxist Sinhala party, is conceding a certain fundamental principle. It is conceding that a deal with the Tamils is akin to a pact with the devil; it is not prepared to say that a settlement with the Tamil people is a sine qua non if this country is to get anywhere. In a sense they are shrewdly ‘right’, because this is what the electorate wants to hear. The Sinhala electorate is still unable to stomach a power sharing deal with the Tamil people. This is why we are such a long, long way from solving the national question.

So I have let you into a bit of a secret; you now know what to expect, as well as what not to expect, if Fonseka wins!