Tamil options and the April 08 SL General Election

By Luxman Arvind

(March 09, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) The January 26 Presidential Elections are over and, like its predecessor in 2005 that also returned the same candidate Mahinda Rajapakse, is bathed in doubt and controversy.The weak UNP and the weaker still Ranil Wickramasinghe are unable to capitalise on this alleged fraud and so the opposition - that includes the usually mercurial JVP and Mangala Samaweera - have abandoned what the international community would have viewed as a valid objection. The appeal against the January 26 Presidential Election is now before the country`s highest judicial body. Convincing arguments for the victory and the challenge remain in a part of the world where election victories are questioned – more as a rule than exception. The graceful yielding of Al Gore to George Bush (Jr) in probably the most bitterly contested Presidential Election in US history – `` ìn the interest of the nation`s unity`` is not a culture we are likely to see in Lankan region for quite a while.

The choice before Lankan Tamils within the Island and the influential diaspora is how will Tamils vote this time. The world was surprised the larger number of voters in the Tamil and Muslim communities – the two large communities after the Sinhalese population-wise - overwhelmingly voted in favour of Gen. Sarath Fonseka - although a few months back he was feared by the Tamils as one whose avowed aim was to politically and numerically render the Tamil community into gradual extinction. In his own pronouncements before he changed into military uniform, Fonseka pleased many Sinhala hearts insisting the island belongs only to the Sinhalese. He added Tamils and others might just as well `behave – or else`` Unsurprisingly, his tone and attitude changed once he became a Presidential candidate. Millions of Sinhalese were surprised when the fire-breathing General was found bowed-head in prayer at the venerated Nallur Kandasamy Temple in the historical land of the Tamils in his election campaign - in traditional dhoti, pottu and kumkum as devout Hindus do. Tamil votes were found to be crucial for victory. Whatever his inner intentions may have been, millions in the island – more so the overwhelmingly Tamils inhabiting the North East Province welcomed the gesture in the belief the mindset of the hardline Sinhalese is going through a sea-change. This includes many of those seen as anti-Tamil and obstinately unyielding on the National Question - the radical JVP, the racially-charged JHU party dominated by politically active monks. Many identified with narrow Sinhala supremacist ideology are joining in too - the influential Buddhist clerical hierarchy in the different Sects.

The choice before the main grouping of the Tamil political formation - Tamil National Alliance -lead by senior politician R. Sampanthan - is unenviable. Although the Rajapakse Brothers are reported to have made the TNA many assurances to join their Alliance, the TNA eventually decided to lend their support to Gen. Fonseka pointing Mr, Rajapakse had many years while he was in power to bring relief and justice to Tamils. Sampanthan speaking for the TNA said Rajapakses failed to honour these after he assumed the powerful position of Executive President . The choice before the Tamils in the Jan 26 elections was bizarre. They had to chose between the man giving the orders to the almost entirely Sinhala army in his role as C-in-C to bring the Tamils to their knees or to the man physically carrying it out enthusiastically on the ground in his role of the all-powerful Army Commander. In that personification Fonseka cared tuppence to established International Protocols on modern warfare or Human Rights either to Tamil combatants or nearly a million civilian Tamils in the NEP.

The NEP political leadership is under pressure both from the voters and the diaspora for a change in the existing political representation in Parliament. The fresh faces one sees and the removal of some old in the current lists of candidates of the main Tamil parties points out this view has received attention. In spite of the recent meeting in Geneva aimed at unity, Tamil political parties have failed to work out a programme of coming together to speak in a single voice. This lacking will weaken them in that necessary bargaining power in a Sinhala-dominated Parliament of 225 where the combined NEP Tamil seats will be around 25 only. That section of the Tamil diaspora with its own sympathies to the LTTE seems to be gaining ground now with their Project of the Trans National Government of Tamil Eeelam getting a boost in the very premises of the British The well-attended Global Tamil Forum meeting last week in the premises of the British Parliament has incensed GoSL.

The presence and the encouraging addresses of key players in the Labour government and th Conservative Govt-in-Waiting should awaken the Rajapakse regime to the reality the world at large – and particularly Western countries whose aid and commercial imperatives are vital to Sri Lanka’s economic survival bear support and sympathy to Tamils. They share the widely held view the Rajapakse regime has done little to address the problem with time and resources in hand. It is true the influential Tamil diaspora can do little to alter the voting pattern in Sri Lanka because almost all of them are nationals of other counries. But to ignore them will be at the peril of the Rajapakses because their voice is articulated through legislatures in the USA, Canada, Britain, Germany, France, Switzerland, Norway, Australia, Malaysia - to list the countries where the Tamil diaspora is concentrated. It is now a global reality in those instances nationals of their own countries are subject to prolonged discrimation, the international community has a recognised role to play. The Diaspora is proceeding with its Agenda that also includes provisions for Diaspora Tamils to vote in Sri Lanka. They model this on the Israeli example where Israelis anywhere in the world can vote in the Knesset Elections. Many of these Israelis flown into the Elections to vote in the elections are dual Citizens – a provision the Tamil diaspora is examining. Many in Sri Lanka will be surprised to learn the Rajapakse government is also in consultation with several representative entities of the Tamil diaspora. The talks, inter alia, is said also to include dual-citizenship.

Meanwhile, the opposition to the TNA in the North will come from Douglas Devananda`s EPDP, PLOTE and, to a lesser, extent from the TNA breakaways like young Gajendran Ponnambalam, Shivajilingam (the latter performed poorly in the last Presidential Elections) and a few others. The Karuna-Pillaiyan schism in the Batticaloa District will cause concern both to the TNA and the government . Karuna`s decline from once-admired fearless Tamil field commander to his much advertised debauchery and deplorable wayward conduct will not find favour with voters in the EP who respect conventional family integrity from the man of the house. Kindnappings in ubiquitous white vans where many have been fond dead; coercion, intimidation in daily life in the NEP and the Colombo District by favoured Tamil politicians within the government are very much in the minds of Tamil voters. The more of the analytical voters among the Tamils are conscious - with dwindling resources and a sceptical IMF- WB and the Donor community, the Rajapakse government is unlikely to carry out the grandiose promises to "develop Tamil lands" in the NEP. They would rather use the inadequate resource availability to develop the Sinhala South – their main vote base for their own political survival. Predictably, there can be a few hand-outs here and there in the Tamil areas more for cosmetic purposes. These are unlikely to gain those features to make the besieged Tamils to rejoin the Sri Lankan family – meaningful devolution to run their own affairs, rapid infra-structural development of the NEP. This ideally to include water resources, the repair and building up of main roads, bridges, restoration of HSZ lands/farms, industrialisation employment generation, building newére-doing hospitals, schools, places of worship destroyed by the war, modernisation and development of the agricultural and fishing industries - being the chief among the more urgent. Admittedly, there has been visible improvement in road transport, provision of electricity – that makes Tamil think favourably. Signs of the return to normal life, denied to Tamils under LTTE rule, has engaged Tamil favour as the people yearn a life of peace and quiet. The arrival of over 3 million Sinhalese from the South has brought in infra-strucutre strains in a part of the country that is still to get back on its feet. Complaints of questionable behaviour by the less cultured among the Sinhala visitors desecrating Hindu temples, hooting at Tamil girls riding in bicycles and other lack of civility certainly engages Tamil dis-favour and needs to be looked at by the authorities - notably those in uniform. NEP Tamils are conscious of Sinhala sensitivities of the day and do not expect everything to happen at once. But the fact the Rajapakse government under-performed since 2005 when the LTTE was considerably weakened since May 2009 when they were entirely removed from the scene – are vital areas in which the government had space to re-establish its confidence with the Tamils in the NEP.

The Tamils in the Plantation areas are a different cup of tea. Thondaman’s fortunes, in a way, are in the ascendancy with his main rival Chandrasekeran gone. He has re-established his confidence with the Rajapakse regime in the Presidential Election – where he chose well to hitch his CWC with the Rajapakse wagon. If he can producec over 8 CWC MPs on April 08 Thondaman is assured of a plum Ministry - that he enjoyed in 2001/2002. It is unlikely the break-away of veteran CWC TU man M.S. Sellasamy, Yogarajan or Satchithananthan will in any way substantially weaken him. In the same vein, the going in the Central Province and Nuwara Eliya District in particular is not going to be easy. Men like Sathasivam, Vadivel Suresh, Digambaram, Puthrasigamoney, Mano Ganesan will trouble him in the April elections. But the CWC resources and network, his own considerable electoral skills may retain for him the dominant position as leader of the people of recent Indian origin - the undisputed mantle of the legendary leader and King of Malainadu - the late Saunyamoorthy Thondaman.

Tamils in the Colombo and Gampaha Districts may, this time, decide to go with the Rajapakse government since the UNP is woefully divided, unsure of itself in its own leadership. By the manner the UNP is going about it appears to have conceded the elections to the Rajapakses already with serial-loser Ranil Wickremasinghe fated to remain in the opposition.

The incarcerated Sarath Fonseka is unlikely to repeat his own performance in the January 26 Presidential Elections. His own Coalition is in shatters where the State used its mighty media and propaganda juggernaut to its advantage. The divided JVP under Somawansa Amarasinghe-Tilvin Silva probably will not come close to their Parliamentary harvest of 2004. The break-away JVP faction under the inspiration of the charismatic Wimal Weerawansa too is under attack. Weerawansa`s shift from his home-base Kalutara to the Colombo District will be questioned. The concern of the Buddhist voters country-wide about the un-buddhistic conduct of the JHU in the political snake-pit is shown in most of the militant monks removed from JHUs own list of candidates. With their opposition divided, weakened or rendered to confusion the Rajapakse brothers are aiming on a 2/3rd majority.

The visit of India's Foreign Secretary Ms Nirupama Rao last week is being claimed as a victory for President Rajapakse who had accepted an invitation to visit Delhi late April. The Govt has agreedto allow GoI to open a Consular Office in Jaffna. The Sinhala extreme is unlikely to agree to this and may, in due time, show their opposition. There is already a whispering campaign this is a victory for the Tamil political groupings and this is a further stepping stone to an Eelam that they suspect is on way sooner than later.

As one saw in the Post-May 2009 period and the Presidential Elections Sri Lanka can come out with the unpredictable and the most incredible. April 08 can sill spring surprises although as at date it looks like the Rajapakses - who have no compunction in misusing the States considerable resources - may see the continuation of their good fortune in a country where the poltical high and mighty believe deeply in Astrology. Who will see fortune smiling on them and who will see ``stars`` will be determined in about 5 weeks from now in the beautiful and calm island once known as the Pearl of the Indian Ocean - but now no more than an Island of Tears.