A War That Will Have All Losers

Ukraine has not started this war and the war is fought on the territory of Ukraine and in  it’s airspace  and not that of Russia.

by N.S.Venkataraman   

The ongoing Ukraine Russian war  has not ended up as a localized affair and  the adverse impact of this war has caused severe international repercussions, affecting all the countries in the world in one way or the other. There are five stakeholders in this war  namely Russia, Ukraine, NATO countries in Europe , USA and rest of the world.

Russia started this war , stating that if Ukraine would  join the NATO alliance , it would be a threat to the security and sovereignty of Russia. Russia claimed that it has to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO at any cost  and therefore, the war  against Ukraine is necessary. Those who want to understand the logic of Russia’s stand think  that several years back, Russia wanted to have a sort of  military base in Cuba, USA under President Kennedy protested, stating that it would be a threat to the security of the USA  and went ahead blockading Cuba. Russia’s logic now could be similar to the logic of USA then.

However, when Ukraine has now said clearly that it would not join NATO, Russia should have stopped the war. On the other hand , Russia  is continuing to attack Ukraine brutally, making  many people suspect that Russia’s objective must be much more deeper and sinister than preventing Ukraine  from joining NATO.

Ukraine has not started this war and the war is fought on the territory of Ukraine and in  it’s airspace  and not that of Russia. Obviously, Ukraine is the victim of Russia’s aggression and the overwhelming world view is now sympathetic towards Ukraine for it’s sufferings and the loss of lives due to Russia’s attack. It is another matter that Russia does not care about world opinion.

NATO countries are  concerned that Ukraine should not go down under Russia’s onslaught,  since this could   make Russia  become even more aggressive and  it may  even attempt to   subdue  nearby NATO countries to increase it’s dominance. .  NATOs concern is justified since NATO claims that it  is a defence oriented set up and has repeatedly said that it is not an offence oriented.  Russia’s success in Ukraine could certainly be a threat   not only for NATO countries and   other nearby countries and this is why even Finland , which shares  border with Russia ,now wants to join NATO to protect it’s territorial integrity and safeguard itself from possible Russia’s aggression in future.

Of course, USA also considers itself as a stakeholder in this war, since it wants to   protect it’s position as super power in the world at any cost, for which the precondition is that US dollar continue to remain as the dominant  currency in the world  and Russia and China should not become too strong to challenge it’s superpower status at anytime in future.

Rest of the world suffers due to skyrocketing price of energy like crude oil, natural gas and coal and impending global food shortage due to short supply of wheat etc., as Russia and Ukraine are the large producers of wheat  as well as other minerals like neon etc.

USA and NATO countries send arms to Ukraine  clearly realizing that they should not fight against Russia  directly, which would lead to a third world war. To this extent, they seem to show more responsible behavior than Russia since Russia has threatened on more than one occasion that it would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.  

Like pot calling the kettle black, Russia is protesting against arms supply to Ukraine, even as Russia is mercilessly bombing Ukraine and killing innocent citizens there. 

Obviously, Russia believes that it’s crude oil and natural gas deposits and agricultural production like wheat give it  huge strength to confront the  NATO countries and USA.

Not wanting to have direct war with Russia, NATO and USA have no alternative rather than sending arms to Ukraine to enable it to fight against Russia’s aggression.  These countries  have launched an economic war against Russia  and on the face of it, this appears to be the only option for NATO countries to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine.

Today, after more than fifty days of war, every country in the world would like the war to be stopped , as GDP of Russia and NATO countries are going down and price of commodities and food products  and other industrial goods and minerals are increasing everywhere including in the USA to an unbearable level. More than anything else, this war  has shown the level of  interdependency between the countries and the fact that no country can afford to take law into it’s own hands in dealing with other countries,  however powerful it may be. Certainly, Russia would realise this factor sooner or later, as it has bitten more than what it can chew and has grossly miscalculated in conducting a prolonged war against Ukraine.

As none of the stakeholders can allow such disturbing conditions to continue any longer, this war will end soon with every stakeholder looking for a  face saving formula.

Of course, the  net result would be that the Ukraine Russia war would end up as a strange war where there would be all losers and no winners, with every country in the world having lost in one way or the other economically, with some countries like Sri Lanka  now facing near bankrupt condition due to this war which was preceded by COVID pandemic

Of course, the worst affected  would be Ukraine and perhaps, the  sympathetic  world will rush to Ukraine  to help  in rebuilding the country after this war would end.

Russia would take very long time to live down it’s image gained by Putin’s irresponsible policy and behavior , as a  war monger country.

Finally, the energy war between Russia and NATO countries would continue to be a matter of debate . When things quieten down , Russia  would  continue to supply crude oil and natural gas to Europe and Europe would continue  to buy , as both these stakeholders have no alternative viable option immediately. Certainly, NATO countries would       try to develop  alternate options like renewable energy to reduce the dependence on fossil fuel from Russia. To what extent this would happen can only be a matter of guess  at present.

USA and the rest of the world would also suffer due to cost push inflation for quite some time.

The other big loser would be UNO, which has become a laughing stock and a mere debating club in it’s dealing with Russia Ukraine war.

  Finally, historians would record this war as a strange one  with all losers and proving the fruitlessness  of war and at the same time, recording that the human  mindset is unlikely to change fundamentally in favour of peaceful co existence between the world citizens.