Ukraine has not started this war and the war is fought on the territory of Ukraine and in it’s airspace and not that of Russia.
by N.S.Venkataraman
The ongoing Ukraine Russian war has not ended up as a localized affair and the adverse impact of this war has caused severe international repercussions, affecting all the countries in the world in one way or the other. There are five stakeholders in this war namely Russia, Ukraine, NATO countries in Europe , USA and rest of the world.
Russia started this war , stating that if Ukraine would join the NATO alliance , it would be a threat to the security and sovereignty of Russia. Russia claimed that it has to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO at any cost and therefore, the war against Ukraine is necessary. Those who want to understand the logic of Russia’s stand think that several years back, Russia wanted to have a sort of military base in Cuba, USA under President Kennedy protested, stating that it would be a threat to the security of the USA and went ahead blockading Cuba. Russia’s logic now could be similar to the logic of USA then.
However, when Ukraine has now said clearly that it would not join NATO, Russia should have stopped the war. On the other hand , Russia is continuing to attack Ukraine brutally, making many people suspect that Russia’s objective must be much more deeper and sinister than preventing Ukraine from joining NATO.
Ukraine has not started this war and the war is fought on the territory of Ukraine and in it’s airspace and not that of Russia. Obviously, Ukraine is the victim of Russia’s aggression and the overwhelming world view is now sympathetic towards Ukraine for it’s sufferings and the loss of lives due to Russia’s attack. It is another matter that Russia does not care about world opinion.
NATO countries are concerned that Ukraine should not go down under Russia’s onslaught, since this could make Russia become even more aggressive and it may even attempt to subdue nearby NATO countries to increase it’s dominance. . NATOs concern is justified since NATO claims that it is a defence oriented set up and has repeatedly said that it is not an offence oriented. Russia’s success in Ukraine could certainly be a threat not only for NATO countries and other nearby countries and this is why even Finland , which shares border with Russia ,now wants to join NATO to protect it’s territorial integrity and safeguard itself from possible Russia’s aggression in future.
Of course, USA also considers itself as a stakeholder in this war, since it wants to protect it’s position as super power in the world at any cost, for which the precondition is that US dollar continue to remain as the dominant currency in the world and Russia and China should not become too strong to challenge it’s superpower status at anytime in future.
Rest of the world suffers due to skyrocketing price of energy like crude oil, natural gas and coal and impending global food shortage due to short supply of wheat etc., as Russia and Ukraine are the large producers of wheat as well as other minerals like neon etc.
USA and NATO countries send arms to Ukraine clearly realizing that they should not fight against Russia directly, which would lead to a third world war. To this extent, they seem to show more responsible behavior than Russia since Russia has threatened on more than one occasion that it would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons.
Like pot calling the kettle black, Russia is protesting against arms supply to Ukraine, even as Russia is mercilessly bombing Ukraine and killing innocent citizens there.
Obviously, Russia believes that it’s crude oil and natural gas deposits and agricultural production like wheat give it huge strength to confront the NATO countries and USA.
Not wanting to have direct war with Russia, NATO and USA have no alternative rather than sending arms to Ukraine to enable it to fight against Russia’s aggression. These countries have launched an economic war against Russia and on the face of it, this appears to be the only option for NATO countries to prevent Russia from attacking Ukraine.
Today, after more than fifty days of war, every country in the world would like the war to be stopped , as GDP of Russia and NATO countries are going down and price of commodities and food products and other industrial goods and minerals are increasing everywhere including in the USA to an unbearable level. More than anything else, this war has shown the level of interdependency between the countries and the fact that no country can afford to take law into it’s own hands in dealing with other countries, however powerful it may be. Certainly, Russia would realise this factor sooner or later, as it has bitten more than what it can chew and has grossly miscalculated in conducting a prolonged war against Ukraine.
As none of the stakeholders can allow such disturbing conditions to continue any longer, this war will end soon with every stakeholder looking for a face saving formula.
Of course, the net result would be that the Ukraine Russia war would end up as a strange war where there would be all losers and no winners, with every country in the world having lost in one way or the other economically, with some countries like Sri Lanka now facing near bankrupt condition due to this war which was preceded by COVID pandemic
Of course, the worst affected would be Ukraine and perhaps, the sympathetic world will rush to Ukraine to help in rebuilding the country after this war would end.
Russia would take very long time to live down it’s image gained by Putin’s irresponsible policy and behavior , as a war monger country.
Finally, the energy war between Russia and NATO countries would continue to be a matter of debate . When things quieten down , Russia would continue to supply crude oil and natural gas to Europe and Europe would continue to buy , as both these stakeholders have no alternative viable option immediately. Certainly, NATO countries would try to develop alternate options like renewable energy to reduce the dependence on fossil fuel from Russia. To what extent this would happen can only be a matter of guess at present.
USA and the rest of the world would also suffer due to cost push inflation for quite some time.
The other big loser would be UNO, which has become a laughing stock and a mere debating club in it’s dealing with Russia Ukraine war.
Finally, historians would record this war as a strange one with all losers and proving the fruitlessness of war and at the same time, recording that the human mindset is unlikely to change fundamentally in favour of peaceful co existence between the world citizens.
Post a Comment