What have we got in government in England?

Will women voters consider voting for Sunak or Starmer in large numbers? Many young women would rather prefer Labour to Conservative, Starmer to Sunak.

by Victor Cherubim

Shadow Defence Secretary John Healey of the Opposition Labour Party has today pointed out: “Since the last election we’ve had five Chancellors, four Foreign Secretaries, three Prime Ministers, two Defence Secretaries, but only one Armed Forces Minister.”

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak [Photo Credit: Sky News]

While there is unease, as 63 Conservative MPs in today’s House of Commons have given notice not to stand at the next election, as well as two, if not three, by-elections being held next month, the country is at a crossroads contemplating the date of the next General Election.

Polls have all come out with different scenarios of the color of the next government, whilst ordinary working people are reflecting on what can happen between now and the General Election, for that matter, between now and the Local Government election to be held in the first week of May 2024.

According to a new poll survey by Redfield Wilton Strategies, Reform UK, the Nigel Farage-linked party is sparking nightmares as 1 in 5 of 2019 Tory voters now will turn to Reform. Just 44% say they would vote Conservative again. This will put Labour in a clear lead with 20 points. But is it all done and dusted? Not really?

Election polls are accurate but can only reveal voter intentions on the day they were taken; they don’t predict the future.

Election polls also comprise only a very small portion of the population surveyed.

The public might say it’s time for a change; they prefer Labour to Conservatives. But the public’s expectations of the delivery of party manifestos are still to count. If Labour or the Conservatives are only able to limp into No. 10, off the back of dissatisfaction with either, not much will be achieved.

Both main parties and their leaders have at today’s date a negative favorability rating, with Rishi Sunak not considered less able than Sir Keir Starmer? The question on voters’ minds is: will things get better under Labour?

Will things get better in the two wars, Ukraine and/or Gaza? Not until there are changes in both wars can anything change in Great Britain.

Britain is a country that increasingly votes by age. The Labour Party will need to muster 2/3rds of the voters who are 65 and over to obtain a big majority. This is a tall order in the present circumstances with electoral boundary changes that the Tories have “juggled” already in the pipeline.

Likewise, will the Red Wall votes of North England be reclaimed by Sunak or by Starmer, even with Boris Johnson leading again in the election campaign for the Tories as in 2019?

Will women voters consider voting for Sunak or Starmer in large numbers? Many young women would rather prefer Labour to Conservative, Starmer to Sunak.

These and many other questions will be troubling the minds of each party’s strategists in the run-up to the next General election in Britain.

Victor Cherubim is a London-based writer and a frequent columnist of the Sri Lanka Guardian