Attrition in the North

With a tremendous surge in confidence in the Sri Lanka Army (SLA), and a continuous escalation of political rhetoric at the highest level, a Northern offensive appears increasingly likely. Indeed, firefights along the currently held Forward Defence Line (FDL), both in the Jaffna Peninsula, north of the Elephant Pass, and along the mainland, north of Vavuniya, are now daily occurrences, and SLA sources indicate that ‘long range operations’ deep into LTTE territory have also been initiated in a campaign of attrition intended to weaken the rebels in their final bastion. These operations have created some difficulties for rebel movement along roads in LTTE controlled areas.

Nevertheless, a high measure of caution – contrasting significantly with the character of the public postures and rhetoric – characterises the present military perspectives on the issue. While it has long been believed that the LTTE’s prowess has been exaggerated, and has suffered substantial diminution over the past years as a result, first, of the ‘Colonel’ Karuna rebellion in the East, and thereafter under the ravages of the Tsunami, there is general agreement that the group’s residual capacities are not insignificant. The area remaining under LTTE control is roughly 7,500 square kilometres, and the topography and terrain of the North, with dense tropical jungles across vast stretches, favours guerrilla forces. Further, some of the principal LTTE citadels are located in densely populated civilian areas – including the ‘political headquarters’ at Killinochchi, and a frontal assault would be exceptionally bloody. Historically, the LTTE has tended to position its defences, including its artillery, in civilian concentrations, to raise the risk of collateral damage in the event of an attack. Indeed, Killinochchi has never been subjected to any kind of military pressure – including the possibility of aerial attack – because of the concentration of political offices, hospitals and civilian areas in the city, and deliberate policy of locating military assets in close proximity of civilian concentration. Further, the Northern Province has undergone repeated processes of ethnic cleansing, and is now exclusively Tamil – and principally ‘Sri Lanka Tamil’, the primary ethnic support base of the LTTE, with only small numbers of ‘plantation Tamils’ (later immigrants from India, principally indentured labour brought in by the Colonialists), who are generally looked down upon by the LTTE leadership. This creates limited avenues for intelligence flows to the SLA and will act as a significant constraint to operational effectiveness of the Government Forces.

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