Whither Sri Lanka?

By Luxman Arvind

(February 19, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) Mahinda Rajapakse, the Sri Lankan President, is an extra-ordinary survivor – hook or bycrook. He won the 2005 Presidential elections allegedly by fraud. The one factor that saved him is where the country was not sufficiently educated to the mode and extent of the illegality. This was the weakness of the losing candidate and leader of the opposition Ranil Wickramasinghe – a former Prime Minister and a man widely perceived to be unassertive. He does not have within him those essential features of a tough political leader to match the times - to go into the streets to protect the rights of the people. Shrewd political leaders like Rajapakse – and, before him, President Chandrika Bandaranaike-Kumaratunga - accordingly structured their political strategies when confronting him. This lack of firmness is one factor that has split and weakened his own party (UNP) – where many of his MPs have defected to government ranks.

Rajapakse , predictably, went about doing everything outside the books to “win” the January 26 elections – although it was clear to him and those around him that opposition candidate General Sarath Fonseka was well ahead after polling closed. The government-appointed Elections Commissioner, the European Union, the US government made the necessary noises couched in the usual diplomatic jargon suggesting the elections were fixed. This week the Expert Committee of the British Commonwealth issued a scathing report cobliquely suggesting the elections lack validity. Once more Ranil Wickremasinghe is unable to organize public outrage of the people to tangible shape – a task he has shrewdly left to the Left-oriented Marxist JVP – now his coalition partner. The JVP has kept alive a nation-wide campaign of agitation educating the people of the many aspects of the fraud. More and more people are beginning to see the Presidency was stolen. Many JVP cadres were injured and several imprisoned – but they carry on regardless. Claiming, inter alia, the Elections Commissioner Dayananda Dissanayake was subject to undue coercion on election night , candidate General Sarath Fonseka has refused to accept the “official” announcement – made under circumstances easily befitting the description “dramatic and unusual” He assured the country he would seek legal recourse to annul Rajapakse’s tainted election. It is while discussing the modus operandi for such legal action with leaders of other parties he was unlawfully whisked away on February …. From his office. The necessary Warrant from a Magistrate to be duly presented by the Police before arrest was missing in this case. He was threatened, abused and physically carried away by a posse of about a hundred armed soldiers.

Fonseka’s outnumbered physical retinue was threatened they will come to harm if they intervene. The 4 leaders of other political parties present and General Fonseka asked the army men the reason for their illegal presence and action. A senior army officer had replied “the arrest to answer questions in connection with charges he betrayed the army and the State’s privileged information when he was Army Commander” Those present, including Fonseka, countered (1) such an arrest can only be made by the Police armed with a Court Warrant (2) he was no longer in the army and now a civilian and Presidential Candidate. Therefore, they claimed, army regulations do not apply to him. These were simply dismissed. The armed commandos were ordered by a senior officer – known to hold personal grudges against Fonseka – “to carry him away by his neck” That is exactly what was done. The protesting Fonseka was bundled into a waiting White Van. For sometime his fate and whereabouts were not known. Bowing to pressure from the opposition parties, diplomatic missions in Colombo, the UN, EU and other world organisastions the government thereafter announced Geneal Fonseka was held in a Naval Cantonment. Eventually, his wife and lawyer were allowed to visit him - which in itself is considered a tremendous relief in a country fastly becoming a Police state. During the visit Fonseka – needing regular medication as a result of a serious bodily injury on him due to an assassination attempt on him recently – told his wife and lawyer he refused to take water or the food given because he feared he would be poisoned. The fact he is held in a Naval facility coming under the authority of one with whom he shares a bitter relationship is certainly not without relevance here. The national concern and tension fuelled by the contested election result was to be obscured by the sensational arrest of candidate Fonseka.

The arrest resulted in country-wide street demonstrations by multiple thousands of people. The nervous regime let loose local thugs - in the pay of government men - with armed with steel rods, machetes etc., The police used tear gas on the demonstrators – and, on several occasions live bullets. In the background of the rising turmoil leaders of the main political parties called for the immediate release of General Sarath Fonseka. This call was repeated by the global media and several overseas governments. The widely read and respected Economist from London carried a front-page piece titled "locking up the Presidential candidate" Noticing matters were getting out of control country-wide, the ecclesiastical hierarchy of the powerful Buddhists – forming over 70% of the population – somewhat belatedly decided to intervene “to save the nation from serious disaster facing the nation caused by bad governance” The Venerable Prelates took the extra-ordinary step of calling for a Meeting of the Sangha (the tri caste-based Buddhist hierarchy) to be held in the historic town of Kandy on February 18. Such a Conclave has not been held before – to my memory. The 3 Mahanayakes (Episcopal chiefs) also stated in their messages General Fonseka – whom they described as a National Hero only months ago – should be released forthwith.

The government panicked and suspected matters are going out of hand. The attention of the nation meanwhile was on the February 18 gathering – where nearly 30,000 yellow-robed Buddhist monks were expected to be present. Then, out of the blues, comes the news the Mahanayakes have called off the February 18 meeting. This volte face disappointed many – including Buddhist adherents who were relieved at the earlier news the Sangha has at last come out in fulfilling their duty "in the historic task of saving the religion and country" which they have done in ancient "times of danger” The actual reason is believed to be where government representatives - sent by the President as his emissaries - uttered veiled threats there could be serious Incidents of a violent nature if the Conclave was to proceed. It is believed they were even told that a counter meeting of opposing Buddhist priests will be held at the same venue. The Prelates were also warned bombs will be flung causing bloodshed and the possible deaths of monks. Such a prospect, including the fact an ugly incident where the sanctity of the Dalada Maligawa (the sacred Temple of the Tooth) may come into play was, sufficient to move the senior monks to issue a statement cancelling the Conclave – in as much speed as they called the meeting said to “take necessary steps to save the nation” The learned Mahanayakes will recall Voltaire in situations such as this when the great French thinker noted “it is dangerous to be right at those times when the government is patently wrong.”

Meanwhile, President Rajapakse, freshly back with a Doctorate from Lumumba University in his recent visit to Russia has called for Parliamentary General Elections to be held on April 08. It may be recalled while the Tamil Question - which the President assured in his election bid in 2005 will be resolved soon - remains unengaged in any serious matter worth mention. The so-called All Party Conference that went on for many months is now generally accepted to be an utter charade. When he visited Jaffna in mid-January as part of the election campaign it was announced by those in the media close to the President, the large number of houses and agricultural farms - that provided livelihood to several thousands of Tamils forcibly taken under the Hight-security Zone - will be released during that visit. In preparing for the visit the President made several conciliatory statements aimed at the Tamil audience including "the burning of the Jaffna Library was like shooting the Buddha with a gun" that won the smiles of many Tamils in the North. The Supreme Court had taken action upon appeals made by aggrieved citizens of Jaffna to release these properties - but the matter was blocked by the army. Under normal circumstances this will be tantamount to Contempt of Court – but no so in this case.

The President and his brother were disappointed with the meager crowd that had come to receive them . He returned – said to be somewhat angry - without making the much expected announcement. In fact, it can be argued while Prabakaran and the LTTE are no more for nearly an year now – the Tamil issue has hardened with the Tamils losing hope in President Rajapakse. They maintain a determined but powerful silence. Rajapakse must not fall into that delusion politics is the art of postponing decisions until they are no longer valid. He must act resolutely and in a spirit of magnanimity to win the hearts and minds of the endangered species of the Lankan Tamils back. To win elections somehow but lose the future for all in the country is not a luxury the tragic island can afford.

The Cost of Living issue - one in which the regime has so far been insured by an opium-soaked Sinhala nation inebriate in the stupor of war hysteria - can no longer be contained where chicken - almost a daily item on the table and available earlier around Rs.100 per kilo is now in chronic short-supply - even at Rs.600. The price of powdered milk, used several times a day in the tea producing-drinking land, has sky-rocketed to over a 1000% under this regime. The Rajapakse government appointed a self-claimed super- enonomist functioning as a tottering Trade Minister for years - a huge dissappointment. How long can the Central Bank of Ceylon under the tutelage of Nivard Cabraal – considered a less than average accountant in his own professional circles – survive on the statistical recovery of the economy that is reported to be massaged by creative accounting and inventive mathematics. It is said if the dollar is allowed to float it will exceed Rs.135-150 from the present level of Rs.113. Cabraal’s pet theory there is sufficient liquidity seems to be based in the inflow of loan tranches and donor funding – all of which needs to be paid back in due time later. The stock market has been somewhat static and otherwise in shambles with hardly any inflow in the form of direct foreign overseas investment. The travails of New York financier Raj Rajaratnam - a regular player in the Colombo Stock Exchange - has not merely stopped the regular cash injections he influenced but has seen him withdrawing much of his funds from Sri Lanka.

From the looks of it Mahinda Rajapakse's coalition may win the April 08 General Elections - possibly with a 2/3rd majority. The opposition has also been run dry of the required resources by a series of elections in the past two years. The government has effectively planted the fear of an LTTE resurgence through proxies in the mind of the majority Sinhala people. The other major political grouping - the UNP - has failed so far to convince the vast Sinhala voter base they are as patriotic and sympathetic to Sinhala Buddhist susceptibilities as Rajapakse's SLFP coalition. Rajapakse and his party men have cunningly exploited Sinhala vulnerabilities of non-existing dangers "to the Sinhala motherland and religion" Unless something totally unexpected is to happen between now and April 08 it can well be Mahinda Rajapakse all the way. The challenge to him will then be to turn the blood-soaked island to its relative glories of the 1940-1950s. Will Mahinda Rajapakse’s 2nd innings end to Sri Lanka in such a manner history may remember him kindly as when August Caesar was to claim "I found Rome in bricks and sand - and left it in marbles" - a pleasing thought for all Lankans.