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Showing posts with label Upul Joseph Fernando. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Upul Joseph Fernando. Show all posts

Premadasa and Anura’s Quest for Power

The 2022 aragalaya arose to once again take someone like Premadasa to the Presidential palace. Although Premadasa’s son Sajith was qualified for this, Anura dressed himself in the image of Premadasa and went to the palace. Sajith, by trying to wear Ranil’s and J.R.’s shoes, went home.

by Upul Joseph Fernando

“Ranasinghe Premadasa, a poor boy, rose to the pinnacle of politics dominated by the aristocracy through the urban labour movement and became the President. He was born in a slum area in  Colombo, and his family came from an oppressed caste in  Sri Lanka. Although caste oppression in Sri Lanka wasn’t as severe as in India, where literacy was less common, Premadasa was an outsider to the land-owning aristocracy that controlled politics. ~ New York Times, 21 December 1988

This is how the New York Times described Ranasinghe Premadasa’s victory when he became President. Exactly 36 years later, the international media describes Anura Kumara’s victory similarly, as a man from a humble family who broke through the political system dominated by elites to become President. However, no media outlet claims that Sajith Premadasa lost because he, like Anura, was an outsider challenging the political system controlled by the elite.

Anura Kumara Dissanayake with Sajith Premadasa [File Photo]


Why?

Because Sajith failed to convince the people that he and his family, including his father, were outsiders to the aristocratic system.

The JVP uprising of 1988–89 was launched against Indian expansionism, but its roots lay in opposition to the aristocratic political system. J.R. Jayewardene believed Premadasa was the best candidate to face the JVP uprising because his close allies, Lalith and Gamini, were seen as part of the elite political system. At that time, the country demanded a small man from a humble family, which J.R. understood perfectly in his political calculations. He knew if Lalith or Gamini were candidates, Mrs Bandaranaike would win because, even though they were major figures in the elite political system, the party she represented, the SLFP, was seen as more progressive than the UNP. J.R. used a man like Premadasa, a small man, to blast away Mrs Bandaranaike, the elite leader of the progressive class. His calculations were correct.


Premadasa used a single slogan throughout his presidential campaign: that he was a small man from a humble family challenging the aristocratic system. He once challenged Mrs Bandaranaike to walk with him along a village dirt road, to bathe in a stream, and to eat in a humble home. By doing so, he implied that he was an ordinary man used to living simply.

Unable to tolerate such talk, Anura once said that his mother didn’t choose to be born into an aristocratic family.

At that time, the people saw Premadasa as a small man from their own class. They thought, “Let’s give this man a chance.” The JVP uprising brought the country to that point. The uprising was fuelled not by the elite class youth but by the young men and women from small families oppressed by caste in rural areas. Listening to their voices, the people made a man from a small family President.


The 2022 aragalaya was also a struggle of small people, the children of small families. They demanded an outsider— not someone who had been corrupted by the political elite system, but someone who stood outside it, untainted.

From that perspective, Sajith was better suited than Anura to be that outsider. Anura’s faction had brought Chandrika, Mahinda, and Ranil to power, protecting the system. But Sajith had no such deals with Chandrika, Mahinda, or Ranil. He was the leader who rebelled against Ranil’s elite leadership in the UNP. While he was leading that rebellion, Mahinda and Chandrika were supporting Ranil. Even Anura Kumara was helping Ranil at that time. In that scenario, Sajith was the real outsider.


So why didn’t Sajith market himself as the outsider?


I don’t know. What really happened is that while Anura was trying to wear Ranasinghe Premadasa’s shoes, Sajith tried to wear Ranil’s and J.R.’s.

The tragedy of Sajith is that he didn’t realise the 2022 struggle was demanding an outsider to change the system. Sajith thought people wanted someone like Ranil or J.R., an elite figure with international connections who could revive the economy. As soon as Ranil became President, Sajith came forward to stand for the struggle, but his party’s leadership advised that the struggle was damaging the economy and should be suppressed, as business leaders were saying.

‘There’s no point in the aragalaya anymore. Now, everyone is talking about the economy…’

This was the advice given by Sajith’s party leaders.

‘Let’s support the IMF. Let’s say Ranil’s economic policy is our economic policy…’

These were the types of suggestions given to Sajith. During the debate on Ranil’s first budget, Sajith and the SJB said the government’s direction was correct.


‘This is our party’s policy. Today, the Pohottuwa party has adopted our economic policies…’

Sajith and the other SJB MPs declared this in Parliament during the budget debate. Anura and the JVP, on the other hand, said they would bring back the wealth stolen by the country’s corrupt elites and build a new economy instead of continuing the failed policies that had bankrupted the country for 70 years. They spoke about the luxury lives of the elite ruling class, their Prado cars, bodyguards, foreign trips, and official residences, contrasting this with the JVP’s simple, austere lifestyle. Anura once mentioned wearing second-hand clothes and clothes with holes, showing they represented the working class. The SJB laughed at this, mocking how Anura and the JVP leaders would negotiate internationally in English.

The 2022 aragalaya arose to once again take someone like Premadasa to the Presidential palace. Although Premadasa’s son Sajith was qualified for this, Anura dressed himself in the image of Premadasa and went to the palace. Sajith, by trying to wear Ranil’s and J.R.’s shoes, went home.
 

Ranil’s Betrayal: Is He the New Ossie?

Ossie ran in 1988 to split the SLFP vote and aid Premadasa's victory. Despite Chandrika Kumaratunga's warnings, Premadasa’s deal with Ossie succeeded, but Ossie was later branded a traitor by the SLFP.

by Upul Joseph Fernando


 Before the 2019 presidential election was officially announced, then-President Maithripala Sirisena had informed the Election Commissioner, through the  Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) secretary, of his intention to run. Despite having reconciled with the Rajapaksas, Sirisena harbored animosity toward the Pohottuwa party, which had emerged from defectors of the SLFP. He believed that if he contested, Pohottuwa would be defeated, as evidenced by his 1.2 million votes in the 2018 local government elections.

File photo of Ranil Wickremesinghe with Sajith Premadasa during a previous election rally.

“Sir, by running in this election, even if Pohottuwa is defeated and you come in third, both your political career and ours will be over. The best option is to support Pohottuwa.” This was the advice from Sirisena’s advisors and the SLFP MPs who had previously backed Ranil’s government but later left. They further urged him: “Our enemy is the UNP. Let’s defeat them and bring Pohottuwa to power. Don’t let coming in third make you a traitor.”


Sirisena heeded their counsel and, despite his preference for Sajith, allowed the SLFP to back Pohottuwa’s candidate, Gotabaya. Even with his flaws, Sirisena ultimately stood by his party.

“Why isn’t Ranil doing the same?”

Today, Ranil finds himself in a situation similar to Sirisena’s. He is contesting the presidential election, fully aware that he is unlikely to win. His advisors are aware of this too. The difference is that neither Ranil’s advisors nor the UNP seem concerned. For them, Ranil and the party’s continued involvement in politics until the end is the priority.

For the first time in 30 years, the UNP has a chance to elect a president by popular vote, with Sajith as the frontrunner. Sajith’s father, Ranasinghe Premadasa, risked everything to save the UNP during a time when its members couldn’t even appear in public. Had Premadasa not won in 1988, the UNP might not exist today. He made significant sacrifices, leading fearlessly while party officials were killed in the streets, ultimately securing the party’s survival. Sajith lost his father when Premadasa was assassinated by the LTTE, but no other leader has done more for the UNP.


“Sir, you will come in third this time. Let’s support Sajith and unite the UNP to defeat the JVP,” is what Ranil should be hearing from his advisors. Instead, they seem content with Anura becoming president as long as Sajith is kept out and the UNP is destroyed. Ranil’s advisors tell him: “Sir, it’s fine if Anura wins; just don’t let Sajith.”

Ranil began his campaign by sidelining the UNP, even removing the elephant symbol in favor of a gas cylinder logo. During the 2010 and 2015 elections, the elephant remained the party’s symbol, even though the candidates were Fonseka and Sirisena. This shift signals that Ranil now sees no future for the UNP. However, as the campaign progressed, Ranil realized not only would he fail to win, but he also wouldn’t even secure second place. From that point, he shifted his focus from defeating Pohottuwa to weakening Sajith. He increased his efforts in the North and East, where Sajith had strong support, aiming to erode his minority votes. Ranil visited Jaffna five times, positioning himself as the minority candidate.


The JVP welcomed these moves. Their official website recently noted that Ranil’s brothers, who were managing his campaign, had filed complaints against two officials from the President’s Media Division for carrying out anti-JVP campaigns. This suggests that Ranil’s media team was instructed to avoid targeting the JVP. Moreover, just before postal voting began, Anura Kumara appeared on the Independent Television Network, a strategic move on his part. Anura’s goal is to see Ranil play a role similar to that of Ossie Abeygunasekera in 1988.

Ossie ran in the 1988 presidential election to siphon votes from the SLFP leader, Mrs. Bandaranaike. He represented Vijaya Kumaratunga’s Mahajana Party, led by Chandrika Kumaratunga, who was based in London at the time. Despite her warnings from abroad not to divide the SLFP’s vote, Premadasa had struck a deal with Ossie, allowing him to split the SLFP vote and secure Premadasa’s victory. Ossie was later labeled a traitor by the SLFP.

Is Ranil now playing the role of Ossie?

UNP members are starting to recognize this. Unlike in 1988, political awareness today is much more advanced. The UNP grassroots supporters know what Ranil is up to, and many are choosing to stay home, unwilling to support his actions.

Sri Lanka: Rise of the People’s Leader

Ranasinghe Premadasa was nominated by the U.N.P. to compete in the 1988 presidential election.

by Upul Joseph Fernando
 
A thorn-crowned prince in a pit said I was a lad selling ‘Lavariya’ who lived in Kehelwatte. I told him that I was a ‘Lavariya’ seller boy from Kehelwatte. It was my luck that I got to sell Lavariya in Kehelwatte. I am proud of that. I would like to tell that prince that one day I will raze that prince’s palace to the ground in Attanagalla and build a ‘Uda gama’ there, bringing people who live in the slums whom they consider inferior, and settle them in that ‘Udagama’…”

This speech was delivered by none other than Ranasinghe Premadasa in Colombo Central.

Ranasinghe Premadasa, who was referred to as the ‘Lavariya Wikka Kolla’ of Kehelwatte by the crown prince of the Bandaranaikes, used to hang around the party headquarters of the U.N.P. in Kollupitiya. One day, Premadasa had the opportunity to speak for five minutes at a UNP meeting in Kehelwatte. The meeting was attended by the then U.N.P. leader Dudley Senanayake and J.R.

“Who is this young man? Talking well to impress the crowd like left speakers. We lack good speakers. Get him and develop him. It will be useful for our party…” Dudley whispered into J.R.’s ear. After that, Premadasa had to go around the country to make speeches. From there, he made strides to the Colombo Municipal Council. But the UNP refused to give him an electorate. During this time, the U.N.P could not find a candidate to compete with N.M. in the Ruwanwella constituency.

Pres. Ranasinghe Premadasa delivering speech on export development. (Photo by Robert Nickelsberg/Getty Images)


“Give me Ruwanwella. I will battle with N.M…” Premadasa went to Ruwanwella and competed with N.M. Premadasa gave a good fight, but N.M. won. Kurunduwatte UNP leaders, who wore European dress, happily watched Premadasa battling it out with N.M. over a drink of champagne.

“The man is a performer. Let’s put the man in Colombo Central…” Kurunduwatte U.N.P. leaders met and decided. That’s how Premadasa’s political journey began. He became the prime minister and later became president. After becoming president, Gampaha District U.N.P. Organizer Duncan Fernando and U.N.P. General Secretary and State Minister of Defense Ranjan Wijeratne joined together and put up posters with Sajith’s photos all over the country to bring Premadasa’s son Sajith Premadasa into politics as the chief guest of a meeting. In the morning, Premadasa came to know about the poster. Premadasa was furious. He called Duncan and Ranjan Wijeratne and scolded them.


“If my son wants to enter politics, he should come through hard work. He cannot do politics with the power of my presidency…” Premadasa said and sacked Duncan from the Gampaha party organizer position with immediate effect. The meeting was stopped even after the posters were put up and all arrangements were made.

Sajith Premadasa, son of Ranasinghe Premadasa, learned the lesson taught by his father to heart. After completing his studies abroad, he came to  Sri Lanka after the assassination of Premadasa. After Premadasa was killed, U.N.P. leaders in Kurunduwatte, President Wijetunga, and Prime Minister Ranil in Colombo over champagne criticized the Premadasa family. At that time, Gamini Dissanayake, who brought an impeachment against Premadasa, came to the aid of the Premadasa family. Gamini asked Sajith to take over the Colombo Central seat and work during the presidential election. Sajith came into politics to ensure victory for his father’s arch-enemy, Gamini. But unfortunately, Gamini was killed. Ranil became the party leader. Sajith met Ranil and requested a seat in politics from the U.N.P.

“Colombo Central cannot be given. I have decided to give Colombo Central to someone else…” said Ranil.

“All right. I will accept any seat that is given to me…” said Sajith.


“Then go to Hambantota…” Ranil said, thinking that Sajith would say no.

“I would like to go…” said Sajith.

He went to Hambantota and organized Hambantota skillfully. While Sajith was going from village to village in Hambantota, the lion of Hambantota, Mahinda, and the JVP, who made Hambantota their home, panicked. Mahinda was a powerful minister in Chandrika’s government during that time. It was during this time that Sajith contested for the Youth Front of the U.N.P. Ranil used party powers to prevent Sajith from contesting for the youth front. Mahinda realized that Sajith would be a threat to him. Ranil realized that Sajith was a threat to his leadership. The JVP realized that Sajith was a threat to the heart of their party. Mahinda and the JVP separately made a deal with Ranil to finish off Sajith.

Sajith, who came to Hambantota, invaded Sirikotha in 2010. On that day, the partisans broke down the gates of Sirikotha and carried Sajith on their shoulders. Mahinda was also scared. The JVP too was scared. Mahinda called U.N.P. working committee members and instructed them to protect Ranil with various promised perks. Mahinda carpeted Sirikotha road by blocking the road to stop the procession that came to Sirikotha to expel Ranil. Mangala, who defended Ranil, joined the JVP and criticized Sajith. During the conflict between Ranil and Sajith, the JVP openly supported Ranil.


Ranasinghe Premadasa was nominated by the U.N.P. to compete in the 1988 presidential election. Amidst this, a team led by J.R. began discussions with Sri Lanka Freedom Party leader Mrs. Bandaranaike to form a caretaker government. The SLFP representatives and JVP representatives started separate negotiations. The JVP prepared to lay down arms and join the caretaker government.

“Those that put up posters saying kill J.R. are now discussing governing with him. Now everyone is afraid of me becoming president…” Before the 1988 presidential election, Premadasa finally came to the emergency law debate and shouted to shake the parliament floor. The JVP withdrew from the talks. Negotiations broke down.

The J.R., Mathini, and JVP alliance, which was united in fear of Premadasa becoming President then, is today formed as the U.N.P., J.V.P., and S.L.F.P. coalition.

For 31 years from the day of Premadasa’s murder in 1993 until 2020, Sajith launched an unimaginable battle to take the lead in the UNP. But Ranil and the other European dress-clad team beat Sajith down.

It was the public who elevated Sajith to party leadership and opposition leadership in the 2020 general election. When Sajith became the leader of the opposition, Anura insulted Sajith by saying that he should have his brain checked. Handunnetti and Lalkantha said that Ranil should come to Parliament and that Ranil was more suitable for the position of Leader of the Opposition than Sajith. The Podujana Peramuna government also insulted Sajith as the son of a donkey. The U.N.P., JVP, and Podujana Peramuna did not tolerate Sajith being the opposition leader. Sajith being president will not be tolerated by all three. Pohottuwa and the JVP greedily waited until Ranil grabbed SJP members and destroyed Sajith. When Talatha crossed over to Ranil, it was the JVP who were very impressed.


If Sajith had won in 2019, it is Sajith who would have had to fight against COVID. Then Sajith would have to go home like other state leaders who went home due to COVID-19. If Sajith had taken the Prime Ministership during the 2022 ‘aragalaya,’ what happened to Ranil would have happened to Sajith. Then the accusation that the thieves were not punished would come to Sajith for ruling with the thieves.

“Did Premadasa save Sajith…?”

This is the story of political observers who believe in nature. In the 1988 presidential election, Premadasa was opposed by the so-called elites of the U.N.P., J.V.P., and  Sri Lanka Freedom Party. Today those who envy Sajith are the U.N.P., JVP, and the then Sri Lanka Freedom Party now formed as ‘Pohottuwa.’ In 1988, the JVP shook the country. The JVP is shaking the country today. In 1988 it was with a gun. Today it’s with social media.

“The country is up to you, son…” Premadasa, who emerged from the ‘sulfur earth’ and died after eating the ‘sulfur earth,’ must have whispered those words on his deathbed. But that is not for Sajith but for the little sons of little people. Even at the time of Premadasa’s death, he would not have thought that in 31 years, Sajith Premadasa would be where they were in 1988. But the son of the little man is knocking on the door of the Royal house for the sake of the little people. If Premadasa breaks open that door, it is not Premadasa’s son Sajith who will climb the stairs of the royal house, but the little sons of hundreds of thousands of small people who joined the struggle.

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online  newspaper.

Wickremesinghe’s House of Cards in Power Politics

The Rajapaksas knew that Ranil was the one who split Karuna and Prabhakaran and destroyed the LTTE.

by Upul Joseph Fernando

Prabhakaran decided on an election boycott in the 2005 presidential election to defeat Ranil, knowing that Ranil was responsible for breaking Karuna Amman, who was a significant ally for Prabhakaran. The biggest mistake Prabhakaran made was sending Karuna Amman to the negotiation table in 2002. When Karuna went to Thailand for peace talks, Ranil used two people to trap him: Gamini Abeyratne, the then-director of Katunayake Airport, and Ali Zahir Moulana, a state minister in Ranil’s government. Ali Zahir Moulana was Karuna’s neighbor, and he recently stated that at Karuna’s request during the peace talks, he arranged for Karuna’s children to be enrolled in schools in Colombo. He also mentioned that during the peace talks, he informed Ranil, who was Prime Minister at the time, about the growing problems and conflicts between Prabhakaran and Karuna Amman.

President Wickremesinghe


Gamini Abeyratne took Karuna Amman to nightclubs in Thailand and became friends with him. When Karuna left the country for peace talks and returned to  Sri Lanka through the airport, Abeyratne continued this friendship. Later, he went to Thailand and got into the habit of taking Karuna to nightclubs and partying late into the night. When the conflict between Karuna and Prabhakaran became public, Karuna fled from the east to Colombo in Ali Zahir Moulana’s vehicle. Prabhakaran was aware of all this. Disregarding international pressure, he decided to defeat Ranil out of revenge for the betrayal of his closest ally.

The Rajapaksas knew that Ranil was the one who split Karuna and Prabhakaran and destroyed the LTTE. One reason they wanted to make Ranil president was that they believed he would split and destroy the ‘aragalaya.’ Ranil accomplished this. Additionally, out of fear that the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) would turn against him in the next presidential election, he created problems within the TNA using liquor licenses. It has been revealed that several TNA leaders, including ITAK leader Sritharan, were granted bar licenses. These TNA and ITAK leaders, who received liquor licenses, are now supporting the independent candidate to prevent TNA votes from going to Ranil’s rival, Sajith.

Ranil’s breaking of Karuna Amman caused significant damage. Otherwise, Ranil would have become president in 2005. Ranil’s recent attempts to rectify this mistake are also flawed. Whether liquor licenses can win Tamil votes will be seen in the upcoming presidential election.

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online  newspaper.

International Influence in Sri Lankan Elections

After Sumanthiran announced the decision of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), they realized that not only Ranil’s Sirikotha headquarters but also Anura’s JVP headquarters were filled with excitement.

by Upul Joseph Fernando

In the electoral history of  Sri Lanka, there is a single signal or sign that shows where the international community stands. That signal is the minority parties. Among the minority parties, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) in the North is significant. The leader of the main party within the TNA, the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), Sritharan, recently went to London and stated that before traveling to London, he met with the South African and Canadian ambassadors in Sri Lanka and discussed the matter of fielding a Tamil common candidate from the TNA.

Ahead of the Presidential Election Scheduled for September 21: Attendees at Sajith Premadasa's Political Rally

Though Sritharan won the party leadership, there is a court case challenging his appointment. Despite winning the leadership with 134 votes, allegations of election fraud were made, and an injunction was issued against him. Following this, Sumanthiran has been managing the party, and the Central Committee of the party has accepted his leadership, largely due to his international recognition. Sumanthiran is the one who raises the issues of the people in the North to the international community. The people of the North know this. Though there is some discontent among the people of the North regarding the international community, as they feel the international community did not support the LTTE during the war, the belief that the international community is there to protect them influences their stance during elections.

A senior leader of ITAK, Maavai Senathirajah, initially criticized the Central Committee’s decision to support Sajith, but he did so due to personal issues with Sumanthiran. However, he later withdrew his criticism and stated that he supports the party’s decision to back Sajith, owing to international pressure. Sridharan is funded by the international community in the Tamil diaspora; it is likely that Sridharan will similarly change his stance as Maavai Senathirajah did in the future. Otherwise, Sridharan’s London visit may extend to other countries as well.

The other issue is that Sridharan has obtained a liquor license from Ranil’s government. Some members of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK) who support the Tamil common candidate received licenses from Ranil’s government. Sumanthiran and other Tamil leaders are threatening to expose them, so they are hiding, also they are hiding for fear that Ranil might expose them if they support Sajith.

After Ranil became president, the international community thought he would unite the United National Party (UNP) and bring the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) under his control. They even supported Ranil’s economic plans with assistance from the IMF for this purpose. However, Sajith skillfully managed to keep the SJB and the Samagi Jana Sandhanaya national parties under his leadership. After that, the international community started losing hope in Ranil. At the time, Ranil himself was spreading news in the media about his possible collaboration with Sajith, where Ranil would become the presidential candidate and Sajith the prime minister, which was an effort to draw the attention of foreign nations as they distanced themselves from him.

The international community eventually abandoned Ranil due to his undemocratic actions and his disregard for court rulings. However, they watched closely to see who would take the lead between Ranil and Sajith during the presidential election. This was because Ranil and his advisors had convinced the international community that Ranil had a ‘silent vote,’ which would come out as soon as the election was announced, potentially splitting the SJB into two or three factions.

Weeks after the nominations were submitted for the presidential election, Sajith’s rallies continued to attract large crowds without faltering, while Ranil’s gatherings drew only small numbers. Even in public opinion polls, it became clear that Sajith was ahead of both Anura and Ranil. Initially, Hakeem’s party, Rishad’s party, Digambaram, and Mano Ganesan publicly declared their support for Sajith. Later, Sumanthiran announced that the Central Committee of the ITAK had met and decided to support Sajith.

Sumanthiran’s statement was a political bombshell for Ranil’s election campaign. Ranil and the masterminds behind his campaign, who had been dreaming of Ranil’s victory, were suddenly awakened. Sumanthiran mentioned that there are a million Tamil votes in the North and East. When those votes were combined with the votes of Rishad, Hakeem, Digambaram, and Mano, it became clear to them that Sajith would easily secure the 5.5 million votes he received in 2019. Realizing this, they understood that Sajith was standing close to victory, and thus the president’s faction began a campaign to support Anura to win.

The first phase of this campaign was to promote the idea that Sajith and Ranil should join forces because Anura was going to win. This campaign was started by Talatha, who had defected to the UNP out of fear of investigations into corrupt dealings. They used Talatha for this purpose.

The second phase of the campaign was to push the narrative that Sajith couldn’t defeat Anura. Ranil started spreading this message on every platform. Through both these campaigns, Ranil was indirectly saying that no one could defeat Anura.

Ranil is no longer addressing the Pohottuwa (SLPP) voters. He is now appealing to UNP supporters and minority groups. Ranil knows that if he splits the Pohottuwa vote, the advantage will go to Anura. He also knows that if he weakens Sajith by splitting the UNP and minority votes, Anura will have a better chance of winning. It seems that Anura, without any shame, is seeking Ranil’s help. Otherwise, why would the JVP media have amplified Talatha’s departure from Sajith’s camp on social media?

It has become evident to the anti-JVP and anti-Sajith UNP supporters, as well as Pohottuwa supporters, that Ranil is giving Anura oxygen through a cylinder. Realizing this, they fear that votes intended for them may now go to Sajith to defeat the JVP. This is why Ranil is now accusing Sajith of inflating Anura. The truth is, at present, the common enemy of both Anura and Ranil is Sajith. Knowing that he can’t win, Ranil’s goal is now to ensure the UNP’s enemy is defeated.


In 1994, after the UNP’s defeat in the general election, Gamini Dissanayake, in an attempt to form a UNP government, held discussions with the Muslim Congress, a coalition partner of Chandrika. Ranil stepped down as prime minister and, through President Wijetunga, had Chandrika appointed as prime minister, breaking Gamini’s dream of becoming prime minister in a UNP government.

In the 2010 presidential election, Fonseka, the common candidate put forward by the UNP, said that Ranil caused his defeat by pulling him down. In the 2019 presidential election, Sajith publicly stated that Ranil made a deal with Gotabaya to ensure his defeat. Now, Ranil is trying to help Anura win. Anura, too, is using Ranil to drag down Sajith so that Ranil’s sins will fall upon Sajith and pave the way for Anura to win. The deal between Anura and Ranil is visible, especially since the independent state television channel brought Anura onto its show the night before the postal vote, inflating Anura’s image.

The international community is aware of this. After Sumanthiran announced the decision of the Ilankai Tamil Arasu Kachchi (ITAK), they realized that not only Ranil’s Sirikotha headquarters but also Anura’s JVP headquarters were filled with excitement. The international community has played a role in three elections in  Sri Lanka.

The first was the 1994 general election, where the US embassy provided security for Chandrika on the day of the vote. The second was the 2015 presidential election, where Mahinda publicly stated that the US defeated him in that election. In this third presidential election, the role of the international community is quite clear—they are here to support victory, not to ensure defeat.

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online newspaper.

Unpredictable Paths: The 2024 Sri Lankan Election

Sajith’s key advantage lies in the fact that he starts with 5.5 million votes, which he secured in the last presidential election.

by Upul Joseph Fernando
 
‘This is the first election in  Sri Lanka where one cannot predict a winner…’

This observation comes from an expert who conducts election polls in Sri Lanka, and it is a valid one. Since 1947, every election in Sri Lanka has followed a familiar pattern—there has always been a ruling party and an opposition party. Either the ruling party wins, or the opposition does.

File photo of Ranil Wickremesinghe with Sajith Premadasa during a previous election rally.

In this election, however, there is no incumbent government. The opposition is vying for the 6.9 million votes that were with the previous government. The closest parallel might be the 1988 presidential election, but even in 1988, there was a ruling party, albeit a weak one. The opposition was split between the SLFP and the JVP. The JVP did not field a candidate for the 1988 election but aimed to divide the votes of Mrs. Bandaranaike, the main opposition candidate.

The ruling party at the time was represented by the UNP, whose candidate was Ranasinghe Premadasa. He won the presidential election, which was thought to be unwinnable without minority votes. At the time, the alliance between the JVP and the Sri Lanka Freedom Party was gaining momentum. According to J.R. Jayawardena’s biography, businessmen who had formed the UNP were uncertain of Premadasa’s chances. Instead of financially backing him, they supported Mrs. Bandaranaike, convinced that she would win. But Premadasa secured victory, largely thanks to the support of the plantation sector and the Northern and Eastern minority votes. Key figures such as Thondaman, Ashroff from the Eastern Province, and the North’s E.P.R.L.F. were critical to his win. Mrs. Bandaranaike, on the other hand, relied solely on the Sinhala Buddhist wave.


Here are the districts where Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988:

Gampaha
Kalutara
Galle
Matara
Anuradhapura
Jaffna
With the exception of Jaffna, these districts were predominantly Sinhala-Buddhist. Meanwhile, Premadasa triumphed in most districts where minorities resided, such as Colombo, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Hambantota, Jaffna, Vanni, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Puttalam, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Moneragala, Ratnapura, and Kegalle. In Sinhala-Buddhist majority areas, Premadasa won by small margins.

Here’s a breakdown of Premadasa’s key wins:

He won Colombo by 22,000 votes.
He won Hambantota by 1,855 votes.
He won Kurunegala by 16,439 votes.
He won Polonnaruwa by 6,219 votes.
In the plantation, Northern, and Eastern districts, Premadasa secured a significant majority. Despite his losses in major Sinhala-Buddhist districts, Premadasa still managed to capture 50% of the total vote.

‘Is the same going to happen this time…?’

It’s hard to say, but when we analyse how the elections are shaping up in the districts, the current competition between Sajith and Anura bears similarities to the 1988 contest between Premadasa and Mrs. Bandaranaike. In 1988, O.C. Abeygunasekara and the JVP fragmented Mrs. Bandaranaike’s vote base, and even some UNP members were intimidated by the JVP’s poll boycott, which put Premadasa at a disadvantage.

Today, when Ranil splits Sajith’s votes, and Pohottuwa votes that would have gone to the JVP are also fragmented, Namal and Dilith are similarly weakening the Pohottuwa vote, just as the JVP and O.C. did in 1988.


Looking at the districts, the struggle between Mrs. Bandaranaike and Premadasa in 1988 mirrors the current rivalry between Sajith and Anura.

In Colombo, as in 1988, Sajith is likely to win. Anura will likely take second place, with Ranil possibly in third. It’s uncertain whether Namal will surpass Ranil.

In Gampaha, Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, but Sajith seems more likely to win this time. The Catholic Church, which openly supported Mrs. Bandaranaike back then, is even more active now. Sajith may edge out a small victory, with Ranil and Namal battling for second and third.

Anura is expected to win Kalutara, where Mrs. Bandaranaike triumphed in 1988, with Sajith likely in second place.

In Matara, the heartland of the JVP, Anura is also expected to win, with Sajith trailing in second place.

In Kandy, as Premadasa did in 1988, Sajith is likely to win, with Anura in second place.

In Galle, despite Mrs. Bandaranaike’s 1988 victory, Sajith and Anura are neck-and-neck this time. Either could take the district.


Hambantota, a stronghold for both the JVP and Pohottuwa, is expected to go to Anura this time, unlike Premadasa’s win in 1988.

In Kurunegala, where Premadasa triumphed in 1988, Sajith is again favoured, having launched his campaign there. Anura will likely come in second.

Anura is expected to win Anuradhapura, where Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, with Sajith in second.

In Polonnaruwa, where Premadasa won in 1988, Anura seems more likely to win this time, although Sajith could challenge him if he can attract votes from Maithri and Roshan Ranasinghe’s supporters.

Moneragala is expected to go to Anura, even though Premadasa won there in 1988. Sajith may place second. In Badulla, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988. Ranil and Anura will compete for second place. In Nuwara Eliya, as in 1988, Sajith is expected to win, with Ranil and Anura fighting for second place. In Kegalle, Sajith is expected to win, with Anura in second, as was the case in 1988. Matale should also go to Sajith, with Anura trailing, similar to 1988. Ratnapura, which Premadasa won in 1988, will be a close contest between Sajith and Anura this time.


In Puttalam, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988, with Ranil and Anura competing for second place. In Batticaloa, Ampara, and Trincomalee, Sajith is expected to win, as Premadasa did in 1988, with Ranil and Anura vying for second place. Vanni is also expected to go to Sajith, as it did to Premadasa in 1988, with Ranil in second. In Jaffna, Mrs. Bandaranaike won in 1988, but this time Sajith is expected to win, with Ranil in second. Thus, Sajith has a high chance of winning 15 districts, while Anura may win 5. Ratnapura and Polonnaruwa will be closely contested. Even if Anura wins both, he will secure 7 districts in total.

‘So, does this give Sajith an advantage?’

Sajith’s key advantage lies in the fact that he starts with 5.5 million votes, which he secured in the last presidential election. Hakeem, Rishad, Mano, and Digambaram, along with Sajith, are fighting to retain those votes. The missing factor is the Tamil National Alliance, which has yet to announce its support. Ranil, who did not back Sajith in 2019, controls 500,000 to 600,000 votes, while the TNA holds around 400,000 votes, with Sajith starting from 4.5 million.

‘So, Ranil is eating into Sajith’s minority votes?’

As much as Ranil chips away at Sajith’s minority vote, Pohottuwa votes that would have gone to Anura are also being divided. UNP and minority votes are fracturing faster than Pohottuwa votes that could have gone to Anura.

From the 2020 general election results, it’s clear that Ranil can disrupt Sajith’s minority vote base. At the time, the UNP was still a massive party, while the Samagi Jana Balavega was newly formed. The media ranked Pohottuwa first, the UNP second, and the Samagi Jana Balavega after the JVP.

Anura secured 400,000 votes in the 2019 presidential and 2020 general elections. He now needs an additional 4.1 million votes, which must come from the 6.9 million votes Gota received in 2019. Among these 6.9 million are votes from Pohottuwa MPs who have now sided with Ranil, Mahindaist Pohottuwa voters that Namal has won over, as well as the votes of Wimal, Udaya, and Dullas. Thus, these 6.9 million votes are now divided across five camps. Sajith will capture some of these votes thanks to support from Dullas, Dayasiri, Chandimal, Dilan, Shan Wijayalal, Godahewa, and others.

‘And if the Pohottuwa vote is divided, how can Anura win those districts alone…?’

Therein lies the problem. Namal entered the fray at the last moment. If Namal continues with the Mahinda frenzy, there is a possibility that he will lose to Ranil. Then he will break the Pohottuwa vote going to Anura.

Apart from Anura’s 400,000 votes in this presidential election, Anura, Ranil, and Dilith have promised votes yet to be cast. In that case, Namal has a vote base from Mahinda. Sajith has a fixed base of 4.5 million votes. Sajith is currently winning. This is true regardless of any polls done on social media.

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online newspaper.

The Mystery of Thalatha’s Passage

The reason for Talatha’s behaviour could be the top ten charges against her. The Rajapaksa family played the game of killing Sajith by joining Ranil. 

by Upul Joseph Fernando

Mr. Wickramasinghe, answer the accusations against you. Sixty thousand deaths, deaths in Bataland, children buried at Suriyakande in Embilipitiya, death of Gamini Athukorala, death of Gamini Dissanayake, death of Lalith Athulathmudali. Ranil Wickramasinghe cannot be freed from those charges…’ ~ Pavithra Devi Vanniarachchi

Throwback to the late Gamini Athukorala and Ranil Wickremesinghe at an agricultural event, reflecting their roles as Ministers under President Premadasa. [File Photo]

Pavithra, not just accusing Ranil of being suspicious of Gamini Athukorala’s death. Gamini’s sister Talatha Athukorala said that she was suspicious about the death of Gamini Athukorala 17 years ago and requested the then President Mahinda to appoint a presidential commission to investigate the death.

‘When I requested, they said that they would give a presidential commission on the death of Gamini Athukorala. Please do as told…’ [ Thalatha Athukorala/ 18.11.2007/ In Parliament]

Then the minister of Mahinda’s government at that time, Jagath Pushpakumara, said that Gamini died under a UNP government and that Talatha’s request would be brought to the attention of President Mahinda Rajapaksa immediately.

Talatha made this allegation at a time when the party rebelled against Ranil’s leadership along with the Johnston. Gamini Athukorala died under Ranil’s government. It was a natural death. Talatha knows that better than anyone else. Knowingly showing the death as a murder, Thalata wanted Mahinda to set up a presidential commission and slander Ranil.


In the 2001 general election, the UNP deputy leader, Gamini Athukoralaya, was the one who toiled to form a government. After the defeat in the 2000 general elections, together with the deputy leader of the party, Karu Jayasuriya, he revolted to remove Ranil from the leadership, at a time when the U.N.P. was defeated in the 1999 and 2000 general elections.

When Ranil went on a trip to Norway despite the fall of the party, Gamini, Karu and Rajitha joined forces and rebelled against Ranil. Ranil got scared and started negotiations with SB, GL, and Mahinda Wijesekera who was ready to leave Chandrika’s government to topple Chandrika’s government under the influence of Gamini Athukorala. Gamini pushed Ranil to overthrow the government in 2001. This is why Gamini’s campaign theme in the 2001 general election was ‘Our Elephant King’. At this time, Gamini’s sister Talatha was not in national or local politics.


She did door-to-door work in Gamini’s election campaign. Gamini did not show at least one poster of his campaign to Thalatha for approval. She did the work of serving tea for Gamini’s supporters. After winning the general election in 2001, Gamini did not get the ministerial position he expected. Ranil also cut the MPs who rebelled against Ranil and were with him. Gamini was shocked. Gamini later died of a heart attack. After Gamini’s death, Ranil wanted to bring Gamini’s son into politics. But Talatha requested Ranil to give her the seat vacated by Gamini. At Talatha’s request, Ranil gave her the seat.

Talatha was elected to Parliament in the 2004 general election. But she was not on good terms with Ranil. In 2007, she rebelled against Ranil along with the then UNP MP Johnston. The Johnstons and SBs left the UNP because of her rebellion. After the 2010 general election defeat, she again rebelled against Ranil, passing Sajith and Karu Jayasuriya. After the failure of that rebellion, she got into good books with Ranil through Mangala. Because of this, Ranil gave her a ministerial position in the government formed by Maithri in 2015. That is the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

December 07, 2016, Mahindananda Aluthgamage, Shehan Semasinghe, and Tharaka Balasuriya Maithri-Ranil went to the Bribery Commission against 10 ministers who were the top ten thieves of the government. Talatha was one of the top ten ministers. The following is a part of the press conference held by Mahindananda Aluthgamage, Tharaka Balasuriya, and Shehan Semasinghe at the Bribery Commission against the corruption of Talatha’s ministry.


On August 21, 2015, the Chairman of the Foreign Employment Bureau sent a letter to all agencies asking each worker to contribute $100 for insurance. For this one particular insurance company was used. Supreme Court ruled this cannot be assigned to one insurance company. Ignoring that decision, the minister assigned this insurance to this Gulf Insurance Company without following any tender procedure. The minister has received around 1,500 million as commission from this corrupt transaction…’ [Niroshan Premaratne/ 07.12.2016/ Hiru TV Service]

After this top ten accusation, Ranil removed her from the Ministry of Foreign Employment in 2018 and was given the Ministry of Justice. Enraged by this, Talatha joins forces with Maithri and revolts against Ranil. In 2019 Sajith became the candidate as a result of this rebellion. After the defeat of the 2019 presidential election, she started a rebellion in the party saying that Ranil should leave the leadership and Sajith should lead the party. She is the one who bothered Sajith the most to leave the party and start a new party when Ranil is in a tight spot that he will not leave the party leadership. The reason for that is the hatred of Ranil and the fear that she will be unable to go to parliament in the general election. As a result, Samagi Jana Balavegaya was born. Ratnapura district’s result of the 2020 general election is shown below.

1. Hesha Withanage 60,428
2. Varuna Liyanage 47,494
3. Talatha Athukorala 45,105

Talatha was very scared by this result. The reason is that she came in third place and few young people were ahead of her.  Knowing that she cannot become an MP in the next election, she starts following Ranil to get a National List MP position from Ranil saying that Ranil-Sajith should join forces. She bothered Sajith the most that he should leave the UNP and form a new party, but Sajith did not stop her when she bothered to join Ranil again. From then on, she formed an enmity with Sajith and started attacking Sajith while praising Ranil and paralyzing the party activities in Ratnapura.

The reason for Talatha’s behaviour could be the top ten charges against her. The Rajapaksa family played the game of killing Sajith by joining Ranil. It could be she approached Ranil to fulfil the wishes of the Rajapaksa family, fearing that the Rajapase family would seek the top ten and out of fear got closer to Ranil if he became president and would go behind the top ten.  

Today she is with Aluthgama who accused her of top 10 corrupt ministers—Minister of State for Finance Shehan Ranil who accused her of top ten corruption. Tharaka, Ranil’s Minister of State for Foreign Affairs blamed her for the top ten.

Gamini Athukorala is a great character. A character who has never been accused of corruption. A character who spent his money on politics. There is no doubt that the hatred of Talatha, who sold his name and entered politics, echoes in Ratnapura like the lamentation of the elephant king.

Source: Mawurata News

Upul Joseph Fernando is a senior journalist and political analyst based in Colombo. He is a contributing editor of Mawrata News, a Sinhala-language daily online newspaper