Changing equations in Tamil Nadu Politics

"The DMK and Congress are distancing themselves from each other as the ADMK and BJP draw closer, with everybody eyeing the next general election"
__________________________________________

by Kalyani Shankar

(February 08, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) The recent trading of accusations between the DMK and the Congress on certain issues is perhaps the prelude to a regrouping of parties in Tamil Nadu before the next general election. While no major split is in the offing before the Budget of 2008, with both parties deciding to row in the same boat until then, the alliance does not appear tenable between the two political parties in the long run. With the Congress on a weak wicket after losing the recent Assembly election in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, the DMK appears to have decided in favour of an 'open door' policy.

The DMK and the Congress depend on each other to prop up their Governments in Tamil Nadu and the Centre respectively. The DMK, 22 short of a simple majority in the 234-member State Assembly, is being extended outside support by its DPA allies -- Congress (35), PMK (18), the Left parties (15) and Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK) (2). The Congress-led UPA Government needs DMK's support since the DMK has the largest number of seats.

Of late, the relationship between the DMK and the Congress has soured due to the Rama Setu controversy. This was quickly followed by the recent controversial LTTE issue, but both seem to have decided to paper over the cracks.

The cracks were clearly visible in their divergent approach to the Ram Setu project. The DMK supports the project and its Ministers are restless that the UPA Government has been indecisive on the issue. It appears that the proposed dredging of the Adam's Bridge area of the Palk Strait for a shipping channel is to be in limbo for some time to come. The UPA Government has more or less decided to put the project on hold until archaeological excavations of the Adam's Bridge are completed, in view of the furore over Hindu emotions. The BJP as well as the ADMK have jumped into the fray to agitate against the project.

The tension over Chief Minister M Karunanidhi's advocacy of the Sethusamudram Shipping Channel Project may have eased temporarily, but he has other problems in regard to the perception that he has a soft corner for the LTTE. Look at the way Mr Karunanidhi reacted to the recent pinpricks on LTTE!

What really provoked Mr Karunanidhi was the attitude of his coalition partner, the Congress. The immediate provocation was apparently the alleged remarks made by the Tamil Nadu Congress Committee leaders including Finance Minister P Chidambaram in a public meeting at Nagercoil recently. Stung by the unceasing criticism against him by the leaders of the TNCC over the issue of action against supporters of LTTE, last week Mr Karunanidhi strongly defended his Government's chiding the Congress leaders and announced that he was ready to "lose power" over the issue.

Last year when disinvestment of Neyveli Lignite Corporation was proposed, the ADMK and other parties had agitated, eliciting a threat from Mr Karunamidhi that he would have to reconsider the DMK's support to the UPA Government if it was not put on hold. It took just 20 minutes for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to make an announcement that disinvestment of all public sector undertaking were being put on hold.

This time, too, Mr Karunanidhi's statement that he is ready to lose power has created panic at the Centre with the Prime Minister and the Finance Minister not wanting any trouble before the budget. They are said to have "clarified things" to the DMK chief. The latest news is that the Tamil Nadu Chief Minister is somewhat 'mollified'.

What irked Mr Karunanidhi? The Congress staged a walkout from the Assembly last week in protest of the State Government's failure to act against those who spoke in public in support of the LTTE. This was the first time the Congress had walked out on the DMK Government after it became a coalition partner in 2004. The walkout happened even after the Chief Minister assured the Congress that he was ready to frame a law to take action against those supporting or expressing solidarity with the banned terrorist organisation. Interestingly, the issue generated a new camaraderie between the ADMK and the Congress, when members of the former extended support to the latter when the subject was raised in the House. The DMK chief simply could not digest it.

It is becoming clear now that with the country moving towards an election, the desire of all political parties to show that they have no links with the LTTE or the assassins of Rajiv Gandhi will grow stronger as much as the opposition to secessionists in Sri Lanka. ADMK chief J Jayalalithaa faces threat to her life from the LTTE and has even moved the court to demand protection. With instability in the island country, its echo is being heard in Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile Ms Jayalalithaa is using all political acumen at her disposal to drive a wedge between the Congress and the DMK. It is evident that regroupings are on the anvil. The ADMK is also talking to the BJP. The MDMK is with the ADMK and Ms Jayalalithaa is not talking anymore about MDMK chief Vaiko's support to the LTTE.

There are rumours that filmstar Vijay Kant, who had floated a new political party before the 2004 general election, where his party got an 8 per cent vote share, is talking to the Congress. Evergreen superstar Rajnikant is another factor that comes to the fore before every Tamil Nadu election. The PMK is talking of a 'Third Front' with all these parties. All options are open for all parties in the game of elections.