India: Divided against their ‘common enemy’

By Shikha Mukerjee

(April 30, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) Merely ensuring that the anti-Left vote is not split between the Congress and the Trinamool Congress is not quite the same as jointly taking on the Left Front, more so the CPI(M), in West Bengal

It was a formality that Ms Mamata Banerjee chose not to waste time. She joined one public meeting at Lalgola in Murshidabad organised by the Congress for Ms Sonia Gandhi’s campaign tour of what is the most significant phase for the party, given that key contestants, including Mr Pranab Mukherjee, will be tested on April 30.

Ostensibly Ms Banerjee’s single appearance, as a guest star, reflected the way in which seats were distributed in West Bengal — North Bengal for the Congress and South Bengal for the Trinamool Congress. To merely ensure that the Congress and the Trinamool Congress do not contest from the same seats is not the same as putting up a joint effort against the Communist Party of India(Marxist) and so scooping the groundswell of anti-incumbent sentiment, on the boil since Nandigram in March 2008 to Singur in October 2008.

In reality, it would have been hard for Ms Banerjee and Ms Gandhi to make joint appearances in more than one place, since not only has the Trinamool Congress taken rebel Congress leaders and their cohorts under its wing, it has encouraged rebels to contest the elections, thereby dividing the anti-CPI(M) vote. In Murshidabad, the Trinamool Congress has given shelter to bitter rivals of Behrampore MP Adhir Chowdhury. In Raiganj, the party has encouraged Mr Abdul Karim Chowdhury to contest as an Independent. And, Ms Dipa Das Munsi, who is contesting from Raiganj, has been an outspoken critic of the seat-sharing arrangement with Ms Banerjee.

For the Congress, a lot rides on the results in West Bengal producing a serious upset for the CPI(M) in particular and the Left Front in general. For the Trinamool Congress too, winning more than Ms Banerjee’s South Kolkata seat is crucial to its survival and its future.

An election outcome that signalled a ‘Change,’ in other words greatly reduced the 35 out of 42 seats held by the Left Front in the 14th Lok Sabha would be balm to the Congress’s wounds. Post July 2008, the Left and the Congress have been at loggerheads and the intensity of the bickering seems to have escalated rather than declined after each successive phase of the election.

With the Left, more specifically CPI(M)’s general secretary Prakash Karat reiterating at every turn that the Congress would not get the chance to form the Government at the Centre, West Bengal has become a key State. In that context, the cameo role played by Ms Banerjee during Ms Gandhi’s tour signals several things.

The joint exercise by the Congress and the Trinamool Congress is indeed a seat-sharing arrangement; in other words, a convenience. Ms Banerjee declared as much when she said at Lalgola in Murshidabad that the meeting was a Congress rally for Ms Gandhi. Since she did not play a stellar role, the neither party, it would appear, expects the other to function as a vote multiplier. That is, the Trinamool Congress does not expect to transfer its votes to the Congress and if that is the case, it would be unlikely that the Congress would transfer its votes to the Trinamool Congress in South Bengal.

In other words, the chances of a joint effort at mobilising anti-CPI(M) or Left Front may not be effective with only a formal seat-sharing arrangement. The adjustment, if it has not impacted and so altered the formula under which the Congress and the Trinamool Congress functioned earlier, would defeat the purpose of the exercise. Both parties have operated on the basis of strong local leaders who controlled the turf on which they operated; Mr Adhir Chowdhury in Behrampore, Mr Priya Ranjan Das Munsi in Raiganj, Ms Banerjee in South Kolkata.

While there is the expectation that the combination of opposition forces, the Trinamool Congress and the Congress, will bring about the downfall of the CPI(M), that expectation can be fulfilled only if there is effective organisational coordination at the local level. Formal adjustments that do not produce real sharing would undermine the hype behind the deal, marketed as an exercise in consolidating anger against the domineering bully, the CPI(M).

As the countdown in West Bengal begins, if the opposition’s strategy of pooling together its strengths is effective, the voting percentages would vividly reflect it. Voter participation in West Bengal is, to begin with, high. A higher than usual voter turnout would indicate that the opposition’s voters have mobilised. A voter turnout even higher than that would mean that both sides have mobilised in a fierce contest to win or lose, as the case may be.

-Sri Lanka Guardian