Winning and losing in the South

By Nalin de Silva

(October 14, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) We have to detour from our series on Pavena Parandel to make an attempt to understand what happened in the south on Saturday. The UPFA on paper has secured a two third majority in the Southern Provincial Council and has increased its vote base. The party has increased the percentages of votes at Galle and Matara districts but appears to have failed to do so at Hambantota the "village district" of the President. The percentages of votes polled by the UPFA have been increased from 62 to 68 in Galle and from 64 to 67 at Matara, compared to the votes secured by the UPFA in 2004. However at Hambantota the percentage has decreased from about 70 to about 67. One could not attribute it to contesting this time without the JVP, as in the other districts and the provinces the situation was the same. It is true that if we subtract the 11% of votes that the JVP has obtained this time from the 70% that the UPFA polled in 2004, then the percentage of the votes secured by the UPFA has been increased from about 59 to 67 at Hambantota. However this is true only if we assume that in 2004 as well the JVP obtained 11% of the total valid vote. As these percentages are bound to change it is not correct to say that the UPFA in 2004 secured 59% of the total valid vote. Nevertheless we could say that there has been a substantial increase in the percentage of the votes polled by the UPFA from 2004 to 2009 even at Hambantota.

Thus, it is fair to say that the UPFA has increased its vote as a percentage in all the districts when compared with the Southern Provincial Council elections held in 2004. Any increase is relative to something else and here we have considered the increase of the UPFA vote relative to the UPFA vote at the 2004 SPC elections in the Hambantota District. Having worked out this relative increase one can next compare this with the relative increases of the UPFA vote in the other districts with respect to 2009 and the previous Provincial council elections. Then there are others who compare the percentages obtained by the UPFA at the provincial council elections held in 2009 in different districts and provinces. Thus one could say that at the Uva Provincial Council elections UPFA obtained much more than 70% of the vote but in the Southern Provincial Council elections the party has failed to obtain even 70% of the vote. This is not a very good comparison but Sri Lankan politicians and the public are used to these relativities that do not have much significance.

In any event UPFA politicians are also responsible for the state of affairs as during the election campaign they went on to claim that at the Southern Provincial Council elections the Alliance would obtain a percentage of votes more than that it obtained at the Uva provincial council elections. In fact some prominent members of the UPFA claimed that the Alliance would obtain more than 80% of the valid votes. Unfortunately for them it was not the case to be and comparing with Uva the UNP and the JVP have already claimed that the UPFA has suffered a set back at the Southern Provincial Council elections.

Whatever the claims and the counter claims by the politicians it is clear that the relative increase of the UPFA vote in 2009 compared with that at the last provincial council in the Southern Province is low than that in respect of the Uva Province. This needs an explanation especially with the President himself campaigning in the Southern Province which happens to be his gam palatha though in Sinhala palatha here does not refer to the provinces demarcated by the British colonialists according to their whims and fancies.

I have not made a detailed study of this problem but as a first hypothesis it could be suggested that the UPFA during and after the humanitarian operations against LTTE, the Tamil terrorist group, has gained more in the traditional UNP electorates rather than in the electorates that have been voting with the SLFP for some time. The SLFP led UPFA had to get those extra votes from the UNP and these votes are naturally found in the traditional UNP electorates. However, this hypothesis if true is valid only in the overwhelmingly Sinhala electorates and cannot be applied to electorates such as Galle in the Galle district and electorates in the Colombo Municipality areas where the Sinhalas are not in a overwhelming majority.

On the average the UNP polls about 25% of the valid vote in the electorates with an overwhelmingly Sinhala majority and it could be considered as a national average at present in those electorates. Similarly the UPFA draws about 75% of the votes in those electorates with plus or minus 5% variations from electorate to electorate. The JVP cannot average more than 4% nationally the plusses and minuses finally balancing the numbers. Thus the shift towards the UPFA in the Uva Province that voted traditionally with the UNP was more than that in the Southern Province that has been considered as a bastion of the "left".

It is clear that with the resurgence of nationalistic feelings some kind of homogeneous national averages have been established on the voting patterns. The UNP that unfortunately continues to serve the interests of the western powers against national feelings have to be satisfied with a low average. This figure has to be compared with the overall average of about 40% that the UNP polled prior to Mr. Mahinda Rajapaksa became the President. Unless the UPFA makes a big blunder, these figures will not change within the next few months. The JVP that caters to a section in the Sinhala villages that could be considered as somewhat educated will be confined to that segment. As the vociferous elements in the Arts oriented faculties of the Universities are attracted from this segment of the population the JVP would be able to come to power in these faculties and also in the illegal body called the Inter University Student Federation. However, dissociated from the SLFP led UPFA the JVP will have no say in the national politics for some time to come. It is time they thought about changing their tactics to become a force in the national arena.

It is very likely that the government would go for a general election very early in the coming year. However it is not clear that the UPFA will obtain a two third majority in the next Parliament as it depend on a few factors including the way the Tamils and the Muslims vote. The majority of the Eastern Province Tamils and some Muslims are expected to vote with the UPFA but the chances are that the majority of the Muslims will vote for the SLMC. In the Northern Province most probably the majority of the Tamils will vote with the TNA. The up country Tamils will most probably vote for the UPFA but the majority of Tamils and the Muslims in the other areas are likely to vote for the UNP. The JVP will be reduced to an also ran party and their influence in the next Parliament will be absolutely minimal. The UPFA will have to work hard to obtain the two third majority in the next Parliament, as they are still behind poling a national average of around 80% of the valid vote in the electorates with an overwhelming Sinhala majority. However, with the bonus seats, national list and seats for the remainder (kote in popular Sinhala) in the districts the UPFA has an outside chance of obtaining the two third majority even with their present achievements.

-Sri Lanka Guardian