Election hiccups

Usually money power, political arm twisting and horse-trading override emotions in voting. There are enough emotions rooting for both candidates, so the one who turns the head rather than the heart is likely to win.
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By Col. R. Hariharan

(January 12, Chennai, Sri Lanka Guardian) For President Mahinda Rajapaksa last week was not a happy one. Media predictions show a slow swing in favour of the common opposition candidate General Sarath Fonseka in the January 26 presidential poll. Like all poll predictions they have their limitations; but they were enough to disturb the dovecote of Rajapaksa camp. It was also a week of bad tidings for Rajapaksa on many fronts.

General Fonseka increased his chances of garnering more Tamil votes than the President after the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), announced its decision to support him. The TNA arrived at the decision after talking Fonseka though it had not “signed any agreement, we have come to an agreement,” as its spokesman clarified. According to the media, the TNA announcement came after Fonseka handed over a document pledging to address TNA concerns. These include on lifting the four-year old state of emergency, release of all the persons held in detention without any evidence and grant general amnesty to former LTTE supporters and help their rehabilitation.

The issues are close to the heart of Tamils and no Tamil party can really question these concerns. While it has given the TNA a face saving method of supporting the General, whose war record did not carry the new found convictions. But the moot point is how many Tamil votes would it swung in favour of Fonseka based on TNA recommendations. The TNA is a divided house with an estimated 60% of leaders rooting for the General. There is also the prickly but 'minor' issue of Sivajilingam's candidacy. It is an ironic turn that the TNA, accused of suspect loyalties, is now in a position to become the national king maker; but can it do it? That is a $ 64 question even the TNA would be unable to answer.

President Rajapaksa has limitations in making free wheeling pledges to Tamils as he would not like to antagonise Southern Sinhala vote banks. They had stood by him in the crucial run up in the last presidential poll; he could jeopardize their support if he is seen leaning too much in favour of Tamils, who were till recently supporting the LTTE.

However, Rajapaksa dogged in his beliefs took his campaign to the Tamil heartland in Jaffna. His visit to Jaffna came a week after Fonseka’s trip. The President was seen doing all the right things there, starting with worship at Nallur Kandaswamy kovil. Rajapaksa promised all the things he failed to do in six moths of peace after the war: speed up reconstruction and resettlement of 300,000 Tamils who fled from the battle zone only to be incarcerated in internment camps till end 2009. Later, in Colombo while releasing the 14-point election manifesto of the ruling United Peoples Freedom Alliance (UPFA), the President said he would devote the entire second term to address all the key issues.

But to all those who expected the President to clean up his act, these words sound hollow as his regime had shown remarkable insensitivity to not only to ethnic reconciliation but other issues of governance as well. These relate to corruption, lawlessness, rule of law and lack of accountability. However, if re-elected the politically-savvy President is in a better position to act than the General who has no party base. Fonseka as president is likely to be affected by the pulls and pressures of the United National Front (UNF) and the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), who are in an inconvenient relationship with a negative objective. At the same time, if Rajapaksa is elected solely on Sinhala backing, he may have to tone down his “resolve” to solve the Tamil issue equitably.

The defection of Batticaloa Mayor Sivageetha Prabhakaran to the Fonseka camp also probably sent a minor shock to Rajapaksa camp. She is a former secretary of the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) who had joined the ranks of the UPFA to become the mayor. Sivageetha is believed to enjoy the support of both the TMVP and the followers of Karuna Amman, currently a minister in the UPFA government and founder of TMVP. Is Sivageetha’s defection a forerunner of TMVP changing its mind on supporting the President? This is a question that would worry the Rajapaksa camp. The TMVP has the muscle to swing Tamil votes in the Eastern Province. And loss of TMVP support would affect the winning chances of Rajapaksa.

General Fonseka has increased his visibility and articulation of his views both in print and electronic media. A growing belief is that the Americans would like to see Fonseka elected to progress Sri Lanka’s human rights and war crimes cases. This belief finds favour with Rajapaksa’s supporters who see a sinister international conspiracy in all this to malign Sri Lanka and tarnish its war record. The ‘conspiracy’ theory gained ground as a response to criticism of Sri Lanka’s human rights record by Germany, Canada, Britain and the U.S. that had gathered mass during the war. Presumably stung by the criticism, the President got cosy with the anti-American league of Iran, Venezuela, and Myanmar. So it is not surprising the escapist mode of ‘conspiracies’ haunt the minds of President’s supporters. But now election compulsions appear to be having their effect, despite 'conspiracies'; Tissanayagam the Tamil journalist sentenced to 20-years imprisonment under draconian Prevention of Terrorism Act for his anti-state writing was released on bail pending his appeal. The court had denied this privilege all along.

To add to the President's cup of woes, the UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial killings Philip Alston has also timed his call for carrying out “an impartial investigation into war crimes” in Sri Lanka on the eve of the election. His call came after getting the Channel 4 video showing summary killing of prisoners by soldiers in January 2009 authenticated by three experts. The culpability of Fonseka, the army commander during the war, in these acts is as much as the President, who is the commander in chief of all forces. However, Fonseka vocal criticism of these actions appears to have been accepted as contrition by those demanding action.

It also curious to see many Tamil expatriates, some with strong pro-LTTE history, supporting the General indirectly. While heir convoluted reasoning is not clear, their financial support to the Fonseka camp could further grease the axles of anti-Rajapaksa juggernaut to move a little more smoothly.

What about the 'Indian influence' that is usually bandied about in Sri Lanka elections? If it is there it is not visible; Sri Lanka appears to have become truly international with American and Chinese influences whizzing past the lumbering Indian elephant.

In this developing political scene, the reported move of anti-Rajapaksa political parties including the UNP and JVP deciding to contest the forthcoming parliamentary election as a new political front - the United Opposition Alliance - is interesting if not significant. According to the media, this front would reportedly contest with the ‘Swan’ symbol used by Fonseka. While that could happen if Fonseka won, what happens if he lost the election? Usually opportunistic alliances lacking ideological convergence never hold up in defeat. They crumble. So it is probably too early to speculate about a united opposition alliance for the parliamentary poll.

Having said all this, who will win the presidential poll? It is difficult to speculate in South Asian “democratic elections.” Usually money power, political arm twisting and horse-trading override emotions in voting. There are enough emotions rooting for both candidates, so the one who turns the head rather than the heart is likely to win.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Blog: www.colhariharan.org E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)