Sri Lanka: Elections without hope

“Apart from the Tamil ethnic issue, both the candidates would be uncomfortable with allegations of human rights violations that are streaming each day. The inability to rapidly settle the Tamils who continue to be either in camps or have been, “pushed back” without requisite social security measures of home or hearth is another human issue that requires attention.”
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By Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle

(January 24, New Delhi, Sri Lanka Guardian) As the incumbent president Mahinda Rajapaksa and common opposition candidate retired General Sarath Fonseka ends their campaigning with hopes of occupation of the high office of the President in a few days from now, it would be worthwhile to introspect expectations from victory of the respective candidates.

Given proliferation of violence and politics of dissension and hate, the campaign has been as bloody as it could have been with 800 incidents of recorded violence across the country Surprisingly both the candidates have hopes on the Tamil vote bank rather than the Sinhala one which as per analysts may be divided on traditional political lines. Tamil political parties with their multiple divisions remain unpredictable as ever. But the perception of Tamils being King Makers would have very important bearing in the post election political structuring for if the winning candidate perceives that he did not have the support of the Tamils than his approach to a permanent resolution may be different than that of a candidate who sees himself backed by them. There fore post election perception management will be important and hopefully there would some succour for the Tamils in the days ahead despite the lack of political sophistication in managing the information space.

At the same time this premise hypothesizes that both Rajapaksa and Fonseka are genuine and sincere in addressing the ethnic issue. Going by election rhetoric they have both promised the moon but are they willing or will they be able to deliver given the many pulls and pressures in the Tamil-Sinhala dyad remains to be seen. While the opposition UNP is said to be more favourable towards the Tamils, the UPFA with new found political partners as Pilaiyan in the East and the ever wavering block of TNA supporters would attempt to structure a solution which will also be acceptable to the larger Sinhala community. It was this premise that had led President Rajapaksa to seek a mandate almost two years before his term expired. He wanted unhindered electoral backing so to say to deliver on aspirations of the Tamils in the North though political expediency of cashing in on the military victory and the general public mood of war weariness had also much to do with the decision.

That the President did not envisage a strong opponent as the former General Fonseka was evident for the latter directly targeted his own appeal to the electorate of a war victor. Perhaps President Rajapaksa may well come to rue this decision as Winston Churchill realized over six decades back, victory in war does not necessarily mean winning the next elections and when the opposition opts to foster an equally popular figure the complexities of winning increase. Though a victory for Mr Rajapaksa given his domination of politics for the past few years and control over the government machinery seems to be assured, a recent BBC report even indicated how there were no election posters in the country other than the Presidents. But then Fonseka supported by the UNP and the JVP will not be a weak rival either.

Apart from the Tamil ethnic issue, both the candidates would be uncomfortable with allegations of human rights violations that are streaming each day. The inability to rapidly settle the Tamils who continue to be either in camps or have been, “pushed back” without requisite social security measures of home or hearth is another human issue that requires attention.

Within this overall paradigm of concerns is the larger issue as to how Sri Lanka wants to see itself, a democracy with liberal values or an authoritarian state with wide spread allegations of human rights abuses, a militarized society, a police state with curbs on a free media and domination of coterie of cliques. It would be unfair to the liberal fabric of the Sri Lankan people both Sinhala, Tamils and others to be fostered with a regime which lacks concerns for the rights of the people especially so since the voodoo of the LTTE has now receded. For this a structural change in approach of the government and the security forces is required to balance requirements of maintaining curbs and controls with the need to cherish values enshrined in the Sri Lankan culture over the ages of living in harmony. For this the venomous politics of hate would have to be left behind.

Will Rajpaksa if reelected or Fonseka as a fresh prospect be able to take Sri Lanka society towards the cherished goal of a free and liberal society? Their past background despite election promises sadly does not provide a positive response to this question. So there are no hopes beyond the Elections in Sri Lanka. We close with a prayer that this surmise is proved wrong.

( Brig (Retd) Rahul K Bhonsle is an army veteran with Sasia Security-Risks.com, a South Asian security risk and knowledge management consultancy and Editor South Asia Security Trends. His most recent book is, “Securing India: Assessment of Security and Defence Capabilities”. )