Impact on Ranil’s Ascendancy

| by Gomin Dayasri

( August 05, 2012, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) In a masterly maneuver, endorsement was extracted without cracking bones or spilling blood - only a passing burp that lost its wind before the belch ceased. The UNP’s hierarchical structure reached near unanimity in selecting Ranil Wickemesinghe for leadership giving him carte blanche for another six years – after 17 years in office, 14 of it spent in the wilderness, exiled by popular vote.

Dissidents feared to surface at a conclave where their master’s voice ruled the airwaves on the Sirikotha wi-fi. A pincer movement trapped opponents who were made to observe the silence of lambs being taken to slaughter. Silence is eerie when the proverbial ‘medical’ is urged as the excuse for absence. If the UNP is deemed to be weak, the rebels are weaker. The weaker may go places by joining a government with an inferiority complex that feels good having UNPers in their backpack making true blue supporters suspicious. The UNP, without much choice, has to back Ranil to heaven or hell in an election season.

Ranil Wickremesinghe, serial loser, after forfeiting his right in the fear of defeat at the last outing, cannot afford to throw the towel, giving vent to quixotic thoughts Sarath Fonseka may entertain. Ranil made a strategic `sacrifice’ in his self –interest, to ensure that next time round, hopefully, in a more favorable playing field, his candidature is secure.

So a determined Ranil made sure the slot is surely his, killing two birds with one stone leaving Fonseka and the rebels on the option rack – (i) follow the leader tamely or (ii) join the government or (iii) get lost. To Ranil - in earthy slang or hard talk - it’s good riddance of bad rubbish, having an open field to operate.

Rajapaksa visualizes he sits in comfort with Ranil at the helm. Not so, if the West and India seek a regime change at the next presidential elections. (Sri Lanka can convince distant US with valid reason unlike India with regional cravings). To them Ranil is less than great but better than nothing in a land of limited choice. Foreign powers prefer a replica to a trophy, mildly put. Ranil will carry forward their agenda that is close to his heart with a few reservations that can be accommodated with a cosmetic touch as he once did with the CFA. He can take TNA/SLMC on board on a distant relationship - carrying two provinces with the minority vote.

These may prove his undoing. The international community and TNA will progressively become Rajapaksa’s straw ducks to gain ground with the silent majority especially as Ranil does not have a nationalistic agenda – his preference carries vulnerability. J.R. Jayewardene short-circuited the process in ousting Sirima Bandaranaike by promising a mock ‘dharmista society’ but then Ranil is no such fake and had to carry supposed knaves, few said to have crossed over, unlike JRJ’s ‘clean-as-they-came’ whiz kids of 1977. Incredibly, Ranil Wickremasinghe has a canny knack of making Mahinda Rajapaksa stronger by his words and deeds.

After leading the party to consecutive defeats, at a mere asking the UNP hierarchy called for three cheers on his behalf. What is the magic touch Ranil has that Sajith lacks? Blue-blooded Ranil in a lineage conscious ‘Grand Old Party’ has no other jumbo around within striking distance to encounter. Young Premadasa showed promise but never dared to make an effective challenge at the crucial moment for his backers to mount a confrontation. Does it reflect a lack of confidence in his followers or in himself?

Ranil has virtues that appeals to his followers: A democrat beyond his party territory, liberal child of free market enterprise, honest to boot with impeccable integrity, bows to western values and carries a broad-spectrum agenda without any sectarian bias and acquired worldly wisdom of the company he associates. That concoction goes well with the UNP caucus, appointed for their Alsatian-like loyalty by the leader. They may give the V-sign but could it repel thinking voters? Are UNP card-carriers signal posts manually operated to raise hands on a tap? Do they blindly follow the Colombo Man? Think tanks of Colombo often misled the UNP, as do Mahinda’s dumb handlers.

Terrorist JVP and LTTE combine annihilated the UNP’s emerging leadership from tiers one and two. Ranil is last of JR’s prestigious pedigreed pups, stoutly faithful in an erratic litter. In his peer group within the UNP there is no contender. Team Ranil knew they are doomed if Sajith’s sycophants took over the party- head chop was inevitable. It had to be done before the final stretch, disregarding a jerk, for self-preservation.

Hilarious to ludicrous anecdotes are used to make Ranil look boorish, but none that smacks of any financial indiscipline; the rumor factory is closed since he is not associated with muck. Not born to cheat, he is disciplined and stands straight but some around him indulged in ‘deals’ distant from his gaze. Advantage accrued to Ranil in becoming Mr. Clean. Others imprudently frolicked in the mud.

Consequences of the impeachment motion against President Premadasa of tight control with an iron fist made its impact – Premadasa estopped ministers from mischief; diverting from that practice damaged Prime Minister Wickremasinghe fatally as the doings of wild men around Rajapaksa. The president knows that some ministers and high officials can cause his downfall on corruption, maladministration and inefficiency. He is fast losing loyalist forces because of his associates’ policies, practices and personalities. To his disadvantage, Mahinda’s mafia presently holds public office unlike Ranil’s cronies. Gratitude for eliminating terrorism remains marginally diminished. But if the gap closes, other extraneous factors may come into the reckoning. Personal popularity polls show the president is comfortably up and away.

These political tremors have a tsunami effect on the home of the JVP, where cracks could develop with a drift to both the major forces. In provincial elections – more than winning or losing - it is the majorities that will matter for a reading on presidential elections.