by Laksiri Fernando
“Men
ought either to be indulged or utterly destroyed, for if you merely offend
them, they take vengeance.” -
Machiavelli
“Vengeance
is mine, I will repay, says the Lord.” Romans 12:19
“Jesus
taught his disciples to turn the other cheek.” (Matthew 5:39)
How
Things Began?
It is said Maithripala Sirisena left
Mahinda Rajapaksa four years ago, after a hopper treat, because he was not
given due recognition as a Minister, and the PM position. That may be true.
Otherwise, he even voted for the 18th Amendment to allow the
possibility of Rajapaksa to contest for the Presidency again and again without
a term-limit. There must have been other reasons to do with family rule or
authoritarian handling of things.
The Lord (the
people) took vengeance from Rajapaksa on the 8thJanuary 2015, and he
left for Madamulana on the same night without a whimper, whatever Mangala
Samaraweera talked about a military coup. Romans as quoted above were correct
about the Lord. That was justice. After another attempt at power as the PM on
26th October 2018, Rajapaksa is again eating the humble pie, still
waiting to be declared as the Leader of the Opposition. Justice often means
punishment, and this time by the Supreme Court.
When Sirisena was elected as the
President, to the surprise of many, he was quite amicable to Ranil
Wickremesinghe, the schemer behind all the political gimmicks since then, and
even called the latter ‘Sir.’ However, Ranilapparently didn’t like anyone above
him and most certainly a ‘gamarala’ from Polonnaruwa. Most disliked was his
continuous and rigmarole Sinhala talk. Sirisena was meekly humble at the
beginning, and even gave the Temple Trees back to the PM.
Then there was this 100 day program (whoever
drafted it!) to clip the presidential powers of anyone above the PM, among
other things, and Sirisena was obviously trapped. Only obstacle was the
presidential constitution itself which could not be totally changed without people’s
consent, a referendum. Therefore, many constitutional jugglery had to be performed,
as evident from the 19A. An expert from the left movement was hired for the
job, who has some experience in these type of matters.
Naivety
and Offense
Sirisena was obviously naïve at the
beginning. When he realized his predicament, he was rather late. Therefore his
anger was doubled, and trebled. This is where what Machiavelli said about
‘offence’ became true. Sirisena was not destroyed, but offended to the brim.
This is not torelate Machiavelli’s
advice literally into democratic politics today. Complete destruction of an
enemy is not possible today, except in civil war or by punishing someone for criminal
offenses. Now JaliyaWickramasuriya, Mahinda’s first cousin, is trapped in the
USA. Similar things might happen in the near future. Otherwise, politicians
have to live with perceived enemies, whether they like it or not. Mahinda
Rajapaksa (also his gang) is still there with renewed vigour, although slightly
bruised after the abortive attempt at unjustified grabbing of the PM position. Sirisena
is to be blamed mainly for this tragicomic happening.
There is no question that politicians
should be punished for financial fraud and corruption. However, this should be done
without bias, and equally for one’s own side, and not merely targeting the
opposition. Otherwise, the Lord will be angry. The opposite is what has
happened since 2015 and the appointment of Ravi Karunanayake would confirm the
situation in the eyes of the people. Whatever said against Sirisena, he
relatively appears clean in respect of financial matters (so far!). Although
called Mr Clean, Wickremesinghe is still a prime suspect in the Bond Scam.
Revenging
in Circles
What has happened since 2015 is revenging
in circles, not mere circularity. The reasons are not so byzantine. Politics is
understood,or used by politicians as power, and absolute power in the case of
some. And power is used for personal interests rather than for public good. Politics
should be for justice and public good instead. Sirisena took revenge from
Rajapaksa as he was marginalized. Wickremesinghe took revenge from Sirisena as
he was not toying his line as anticipated. There were overt or alleged policy
differences as well.
The first policy difference between the
two was the appointment of Arjuna Mahendran as the Governor to the Central Bank.
This reminded Sirisena of old stories about Wickremesinghe - that he is inclined to work with his
Royalists. By that time Wickremesinghe has taken over the Central Bank under
his wings and was quite determined to control and direct the economy according
to his neoliberalism. The obvious immediate result was the Bond Scam.
According to Wickremesinghe ideology, an
uncle giving inside information to his nephew is not a big issue. What is
important is money to the Treasury. It appears that Wickremesinghe wanted to
fudge the situation from the beginning and even Sirisena corroborated by
dissolving Parliament in June (2015) before Parliamentary Committee on Public
Enterprises (COPE) giving its damning report on the matter. There are so many
other people who don’t consider the ‘bond scam’ as a financial fraud or
corruption, according to probably their capitalist thinking.
Things soured between the two eventually
and much after the general elections of August 2015. Even by that time Sirisena
was like a bruised cobra (pollen
batekanaya) because of the 19th Amendment and other matters. His
first major counter attack was the appointment of the Presidential Commission
on the Bond Issue in March 2017. Even that was a late reaction. Nevertheless, it
was a major turning point of their soured relations. Although the national
government marriage continued uneasily even thereafter, it was without a proper
direction either from Sirisena or Wickremesinghe.
Overreaction?
Sirisena appears to be a slow, but an
over reactor. As he was leading the SLFP, the party’s performance at the local
government election was a major setback. He correctly attributed that set back
to his alliance with the UNP and its unpopular economic policies. First,
without properly assessing the relative strengths between the opposition and the
Wickremesinghe government, he encouraged the aborted no confidence motion in April
2018.
Then came his major reaction in October
26th. He ousted Wickremesinghe, but Wickremesinghe refused to leave
Temple Trees or his position as the PM. Now R. Sampanthanis doing a similar
adventure without leaving the office of the Leader of the Opposition. What
strength did Wickremesinghe get in October even without a clear majority in
Parliament? It is not merely the support of the TNA or the JVP that allowed
Wickremesinghe to come back to power. Some of the Western embassies and
international NGOs were believed to be behind the comeback, not to speak about
the local cohorts. Sampanthan might be banking on the same.
More importantly, it was possible
because of the miscalculationon the part of Sirisena that Rajapaksa could
muster a majority. S. B. Dissanayake was behind all the machinations based on
pre-2015 experience of parliamentary politics. It was not purely a
constitutional obstacle, but a political one. Whatever the objectives that the
people or even Sirisena had in mind in bringing a change of government in
January and also in August 2015, Wickremesinghe government probably survived
and survives because of the backing of the Western powers.
This backing is premised largely on the
objective of preventing Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. It was not by accident
that the Chinese Ambassador was the first and also the last to greet Rajapaksa
as the new Prime Minister. This created more fears or anxieties on the part of
Western embassies.
Overreaction was accompanied by
overconfidence on the part of both Sirisena and Rajapaksa. Rajapaksa’s
overreaction became more evident by taking the membership of the SLPP, or
allegedly applying for it, without considering possible legal
ramifications. WhenSirisena’s three
trump cards of ‘Dismissal, Prorogation
and Dissolution’ came one after the other, at a quick pace, the Western
educated middle class or the Colombians alsobecame genuinely alarmed. They were
thriving under Wickremesinghe economics.
Sirisena’s actions and boasted declarations
undoubtedly had an element of authoritarianism. The return of Rajapaksa also
united the UNP ranks and it was only for a short while that people like
Wasantha Senanayake could flirt with both sides. The UNP/UNF Ministers, State
Ministers and Junior Ministers undoubtedly have generously gratified their
support base through public funds. This is something that the SLFP had failed
to do, giving priority to their acrimonious or talkative politics. There are
clear indications that both Sirisena and Rajapaksa have not learnt the lessons
of the 2015 democratic change, where people don’t want to go back to
authoritarianism or even semblance of it.
A
Lost Opportunity
When looking back at last four years, it
is at best a lost opportunity. It was also a betrayal and treachery from almost
all sides. What they promised and delivered as Yahapalanaya were different. When
friends (although new) become enemies they obviously become extra bitter. This
is what happened to the UNP and the SLFP or more correctly to Sirisena and
Wickremesinghe. It was by chance that the UNF government was salvaged thanks to
the TNA and the JVP in Parliament. In actual sense it is still a minority government.
No one knows at what time it will fall or disintegrate.
Was it too ideal or impractical to have
a national government? Perhaps yes. Primarily because the objectives on the
part of the leaders were short sighted or rather opportunistic. Nevertheless
the positive achievements or people’s aspirations behind 2015 change should be
continued and even enhanced. They are primarily (1) to have independent
commissions to oversee not only appointments but also government performance
and (2) to resist authoritarian tendencies on the part of the President or even
the Prime Minister.
As most of the authoritarian deviations in
the future might come from the PM or the new government, the President should
step back and allow the PM to expose himself before the people. Unnecessary
reactions or attempts at imposition of authority might confuse the situation
and boomerang on the President himself. There is a need for a strong opposition
in Parliament (not a fake one!) and in the country. Opposition activities in the
country should not be destructive, but peaceful, engaging and constructive as
much as possible.
There is no question that the so-called
Yahapalanaya has exhausted its potential. It is a lost opportunity, par
excellence. The problematic however in the New Year would be its required alternative.
Ranil Wickremesinghe has got a lease of life through the Supreme Court and
therefore he should either deliver or get out. Jesus’ advice to his disciples is
too ideal, at least for laymen like us, or for the sovereign people of the
country. If their living conditions are attacked, people should not turn their
other cheek, but should give a good hammer!
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