The Supreme Court’s scathing judgment notwithstanding, Nepal's PM KP Oli has prorogued the House a second time
by Ashok K Mehta
After the Supreme Court of Nepal on February 23 overturned Prime Minister (PM) KP Oli’s decision to dissolve Parliament, he prorogued the House session on Monday afternoon.
A two-year power struggle between Oli and his bête noire, revolutionary leader Prachanda, has ended in a climactic anti-climax with Oli providentially keeping his chair. Witness the events in the last six months: Oli dumped the Prachanda-Madhav Nepal group, ditched the Chinese by refusing to step down as the PM, dissolved Parliament, ordered elections and reinstated himself as the PM — not caretaker — of a revived Government, insisting that it was business as usual. Except that the quality of governance had declined further through rule by ordinances, boosted by the party faithful President Bidhya Devi Bhandari.
In a shock-and-awe judgment, the Supreme Court deprived the Nepal Communist Party (merged CPN-UML and CPN Maoist Centre) of its label and symbol, reducing it to separate constituents. Prachanda’s writ petition for the NCP’s revival was rejected. Strangely, the Election Commission withheld its decision on allotting the NCP’s ‘Sun’ symbol and party label to either faction, saying the party had not split. The story of political hara-kiri was scripted in the NCP despite its overwhelming and unprecedented political stability in Parliament, majority Governments in six of the seven provinces and 80 per cent of posts in the local elections.
Landmark dates in the calendar of events are February 2018 (Oli elected as the PM with Maoist support); May 17, 2018 (the merger of the NCP factions); July 2, 2020 (Oli prorogues House); December 20, 2020 (Oli dissolves Parliament); February 23, 2021 (the Supreme Court’s verdict on revival of the House on March 7); April 19, 2021 (Oli prorogues the House again).
While Oli has not resigned on moral grounds, the Maoists have not withdrawn support to him. No single party has the necessary majority of 138 lawmakers in a House of 275. No party or combination of parties has filed a motion of no-confidence according to Article 100 (5) of the Constitution that requires 68 lawmakers. (The new Constitution bars a no-confidence motion in the first two years of any Government.) The political conundrum continues with Oli at the helm.
The arithmetic of the revived House is the CPN-UML - 121 (including 38 dissident lawmakers belonging to the Nepal-Khanal faction); Nepali Congress - 63 (fractured among Sher Bahadur Deuba, Ramchandra Poudyel and Koirala factions); Janata Samajwadi Party - 32 (Upendra Yadav, Baburam Bhattarai, Mahanta Thakur and Rajendra Mahto groups), CPN Maoist Centre - 48 to 53. The Government-formation combinations realistically at play are the CPN-UML plus JSP; NC, Maoists plus JSP; and CPN-UML plus NC. As Oli is tarred by the brush of poor governance and “self before service”, the NC is unlikely to support Oli, who has not sought a vote of confidence. Strange are the ways of Nepali politics (imbibing the Belgian model where the country operates seamlessly without a Government), probably due to the hurriedly drafted Constitution of 2015.
Nepal has had seven Constitutions (1948, 1951, 1959, 1962, 1990, 2007 and 2015). It is a federal, secular, democratic republic, not completely inclusive though one-third of Parliament’s strength is meant to be women. But janjatis and Madhesis are dissatisfied with its provisions. The Madhesis in the JSP are negotiating with Oli to redress their constitutional grievances in lieu of supporting the Government’s formation. It is interesting that in 2008-09, Nepal turned away from a Maoist Government (Maoists won nearly a 2/3rds majority but were relegated to the third position in 2013). In 2021, Nepal has shied away from Communist rule despite China’s Herculean efforts to keep the Left flock together. Ambassador Hou Yanqui has not abandoned her efforts to keep the Left parties united and has met both former Prime Ministers Madhav Nepal and Prachanda. But the unity project appears to be beyond reach. The Himalmedia Public Opinion Survey April 2021 has blamed Oli and Prachanda for putting the democracy at risk.
India has made an impressive comeback, thanks to the good and quiet work by Ambassador Vinay Kwatra and agencies. The Kathmandu-Raxaul DPR for a broad gauge railway line, 198-km-long and costing $3.15 bn, has been submitted to Singha Durbar. India has said it will complete the railway five years after the land is obtained. In addition, several legs of the Hulaki Rajmarg connecting the East-West Highway with the Indian border are being completed. The grand China-Nepal Economic Corridor, which includes a road and railway line from Kyrong-Kathmandu-Pokhara-Lumbini, is awaiting the green light and funds. Once completed, Chinese goods will reach the rich markets of the Indo-Gangetic Plain.
While Deuba has said there is no chance of a new Government till Maoists withdraw support to Oli, the PM has prorogued the House again even as a no-confidence vote was being planned. The political conundrum seems embedded in the Constitution of Nepal.
(The writer, a retired Major General, was Commander, IPKF South, Sri Lanka, and founder member of the Defence Planning Staff, currently the Integrated Defence Staff. The views expressed are personal.)
Post a Comment