What has happened now is a complete collapse of the political system. When such a situation arises, it is important that an interim constitution or interim administration is adopted as a bridge of transition to a new political system.
by Victor Ivan
This year the Sinhala Hindu New Year dawned with the echo of the declaration by the Central Bank itself that Sri Lanka has become a bankrupt country unable to repay its foreign loans. The amount of foreign debt outstanding is approximately $ 50 billion. The country’s journey towards anarchy will truly commence from there.
From now on, Sri Lanka will become a country which has lost the ability to secure foreign loans by way of bonds or other forms of commercial loans until it is restored from the state of bankruptcy. At the same time, the import-export trade will collapse. The banking system will be chaotic and disrupted. Industries and businesses will suffer facing the threat of being closed down thereby creating a serious problem of large-scale unemployment. The problem of drug shortage can lead to a tragic situation that can ruin the lives of patients afflicted with some chronic illnesses. The shortage of goods will be exacerbated reaching a maximum height and the country may even fall a victim of a famine in the process.
Sometimes, a situation might arise in which the electricity supply and transport system may even reach a grinding halt at least for some time. The emerging state of anarchy which has caused this situation will eventually lead to an explosive confusion in the country maximising the pressure that the people will be compelled to bear.
Sri Lanka will inevitably fall into a terrible abyss. What needs to be done now is to strive towards minimising the potential damage, and build a strong foundation of resilience to recover from this situation. Had it not been for the inexperience, stupidity and arrogance of the Government and its leader, and also if the intervention of the IMF had been sought immediately after encountering the balance of payments crisis, the pressure the public are compelled to undergo would not have been so severe.
The factors like lack of experience, ignorance and military mindset of the President had made him a failed ruler unfit to rule a country. The devastation caused to the country by his failure is immense. Such a failed person has been able to rise to the highest position of the country which has all the powers of the State due to the chaotic and corrupt nature of the country’s political system. A person with accusations should not have been allowed to contest for the presidency, the highest office of the country unless and until he was exonerated and acquitted from the charges levelled against him.
The Attorney General had the responsibility to present the facts to the Court in that respect, even if there were no rules for it. Despite the validity of the 19th Amendment, some officials in the judiciary pursued a policy of allowing Gotabaya to avert legal prosecutions. When the issue of dual citizenship of Gotabaya was raised, the judiciary should have considered it as a serious matter pertaining to the Constitution, instead of dismissing it on technical grounds; but the judiciary did not do that. Subsequently, it is interesting to note that prior to the nominations, not only Gotabaya but also his brother Chamal Rajapaksa had made the mandatory security deposit on behalf of the People’s Alliance.
Although Chamal was present on the occasion of handing over of the nomination, he did not hand over the nominations. It is not difficult for anyone to understand that the People’s Alliance had done this taking into consideration the probability of Gotabaya’s nomination being rejected. In the end, Chamal refrained from handing over the nominations only after he was convinced that his brother Gotabaya would receive nominations without any objection. Surprisingly, neither of the two leading candidates in the presidential election objected to the nomination of Gotabaya based on the grounds of whether he had formally relinquished his American citizenship.
Even the Chairman of the Election Commission and its members, except for silently accepting Gotabaya’s affidavit affirming that he does not have any disqualification to contest the election, did not make any attempt to examine properly the question of whether he had formally relinquished his US citizenship and that it had been accepted by the US State Department. Ironically, it all happened this way despite the 19th Amendment being in force. The end result of this was that an unsuitable person was elected as the President by popular vote. He could be considered as a person who has received nominations in a corrupt manner without satisfying the required qualifications to contest a Presidential election; at the same time, even after assuming the office he has proved that he does not possess the knowledge and discipline required to govern the country.
In that sense, though there is not much wrong in the slogan “GoHomeGota” of young protesters who have come to the streets, it must be stressed that, if the final goal of the younger generation is a system change, then the question can be raised as to whether Gota could be sent home as they expect, only through a peaceful protest movement and achieve their objective. Hence, the younger generation must seriously consider the question as to whether it would be possible for them to realise their overall goal of achieving a system change even if they will be successful in sending Gota home.
Strengths and limitations
In the political sense, the role played by the youth of the country is very dramatic and progressive. They dashed the President and the Government that commanded a massive two-thirds majority, on the floor. Consequently, the Government is now in a seriously wounded, helpless and feeble state. The extent of freedom that the people of the country have achieved through it is immense. The example set by the younger generation in the country about the unity that should prevail between ethnic groups and religions is very strong and praiseworthy. Their effort has deprived the Government of its two-thirds power in the Parliament; but their main demand that President Gotabaya Rajapaksa should go home has not yet been achieved.
The President asserts that he will not resign. Even if they will be able to send him home at least belatedly, what will happen next is not clear. The most important objective of the youth uprising was to bring about a profound transformation of the existing system which is corrupt. But their main theme has been limited to the inspiring phrase of GoHomeGota. A superficial glance at it creates an impression that sending Gota home alone will bring about a “profound change in the system “spontaneously. But there is no way that a profound change in the system could happen spontaneously by sending Gota home.
Pathum Kerner, a young specialist doctor, currently based in the UK is considered to be the creator of the “GoHomeGota” slogan. He is also considered to be the person who has made an appeal for a non-violent uprising in an anonymous manner. According to a video talk given by him, “an interim government will be established in parliament after throwing Gotabaya out of power, and it will work towards resolving the balance of payments crisis; thereafter it should go for a presidential and parliamentary election as soon as possible.” Apart from that, he does not talk about the reforms that need to be effected for a change in the system. It may be that the desired systemic change is expected to happen after holding the two elections. But he has said in a video talk that the target will be to secure 20 seats in a parliamentary election. It shows that he has no confidence that he will be able to secure power in the next election. Then how could he expect to change the system?
Dr. Pathum is undoubtedly a colourful young leader who should be in the legislature; he is also capable of analysing the issues facing the country. If he is the one who was behind the anonymous calling of the youth for the protest, it must be admitted that it’s an extraordinarily successful calling. But, apparently there is no perfect match between the slogan and the main objective (making a profound change in the system). I do not think that Dr. Pathum is the recognised leader of the younger generation demonstrating on the streets.
Although he could be the mastermind who has invited and inspired the public to join the peaceful and nonviolent protest movement to oust Gota without naming an individual or an organisation, it must be borne in mind that the struggle on the streets has been launched under the guidance of various civil and political groups involved in the struggle and not on the guidance of Dr. Pathum who is in the UK. Except for the slogan “Go Home Gota”, they have not yet published the conditions that should be incorporated in a structural reform program for a deeper transformation.
Importance of being wise
The youth of the country have embarked on a daunting struggle; it’s a formidable task and not a small one. The innocent and sincere desire of them appears to be to deprive the Rajapaksa family of the power wielded by them, restore national unity which is in a state of disintegration and bring about a positive and profound change in the political system where arbitrariness and rampant corruption reigns. Although they have been able to make a strong start in the journey towards that goal, it does not seem that they have yet come up with a good strategic plan to achieve their goals.
There must be a practical plan, even for a simple purpose like cutting down a huge tree that can be considered a simpler goal. Before felling a tree, first of all, its branches should be cut off; then the trunk should be cut and dropped to the ground in parts so as not to cause damage to surrounding houses or property. It is a great achievement to be able to keep the struggle in a non-violent vein so far. A part of the credit for that should go to the Government as well.
In any powerful struggle, the opposition is given an opportunity to flee away in order to prevent it from progressing into a “do or die battle”. But in this battle, the younger generation does not seem to have taken this rule into consideration, adequately. If their goal is compared to a felling of a huge tree, they seem to be pursuing an informal method of felling it en mass instead of following the formal method of first removing the branches and then felling the trunk of it.
Another important point to consider in any battle is that a policy of fighting against a number of powerful enemies at once rather than fighting against one selected enemy will not prove to be effective. The support of the opposition is essential in an anti-government struggle. So much so, a policy that takes the ruling party and the opposition together and fight against all of them at the same time could never be effective at all.
An agenda for reforms
The lack of a reform agenda can be seen as a major shortcoming of this struggle. Shouldn’t elections be held only after effecting reforms that will change the corrupt nature of the electoral system? The current electoral system is designed in a manner that allows those who can afford to spend large sums of money to win. The cost incurred by a leading candidate running for presidency is between three to four billion rupees. The black money serves as the main source of funds flowing to the hands of the main candidates contesting a presidential election. Money received or spent by the candidates contesting for the presidency or parliament is not being audited.
The electoral system in Sri Lanka is extremely corrupt compared to the electoral systems of other democratic countries. Until the 1977 election, there were strict rules for election expenses. After the election, the candidates were bound by law to submit a report on election expenses to the Commissioner of Elections. Since 1978, this aspect has changed into a position in which black money reigns over the rules and regulations. Around 2020, I asked the late Mangala Samaraweera as to why a system for auditing political party funds and election funds were not introduced. The answer I received was that the two main candidates running for the presidency usually receive twice or more than the required amount of expenditure, and that the funds received are treated as property belonging to the individual concerned and not to the party.
This situation, with some changes, is equally applicable to the parliamentary elections as well. Therefore, there is a strong consensus to maintain this system, he said. Under the circumstances, shouldn’t we go to the next election only after making reforms that pave the way for subjecting party funds, election funds and election expenses to an intensive audit?
Also, shouldn’t the system that allows the ruler/the head of the state to remain above the law, which can be considered as the main reason that has plunged Sri Lanka to such a miserable state, be changed? Did not the rulers plunder the property in their temporary custody on a large scale because the law could not be enforced against them in a situation where they were allowed to be above the law? Shouldn’t that situation be changed for the sake of the country’s security? Shouldn’t reforms be put in place without delay to curb corruption? The policies and guidelines that provide security and strength to the nation which have been built on the streets must also be implemented soon. All these reforms will be feasible only by directing the country towards making a new constitution.
What has happened now is a complete collapse of the political system. When such a situation arises, it is important that an interim constitution or interim administration is adopted as a bridge of transition to a new political system.
The struggle launched by the youth on the streets could be brought under a constitutional framework and adopt a strategic program suitable for that, update and renew it by reaching a consensus on an interim constitution and an interim administration to implement a reform program. It is important that the United Nations is also involved as an observer in this process.
Post a Comment