One wonders whether the Butterfly Theory may be applicable to air transport where a virus discovered in Wuhan in late 2019 has caused chaos in air transport in the world.
by Dr. Ruwantissa Abeyratne in Montreal
“ Governments have succeeded in taking the joy out of travel…Britain has introduced rules of tooth grinding complexity. In theory its traffic lights system rates countries by Covid-19 risk and sets travel rules accordingly. In practice it is arbitrary, unpredictable, and constantly changing…policies in America are equally baffling…All around the world a jumble of rules causes confusion, chokes tourism and leaves businesses struggling to work out who can do what and can go where…The confusion is made worse by governments taking very different approaches to travel” ~ The Economist, August 14, 2021
One has only to read the news on air transport today to be convinced of the validity of this statement that has given rise to the applicability to today’s air transport of the Chaos Theory, which, although strictly mathematical in origin, has found an analogy in the industry. This is by no means entirely the fault of the air transport industry.
The Chaos Theory belongs to “the branch of mathematics that deals with complex systems whose behavior is highly sensitive to slight changes in conditions, so that small alterations can give rise to strikingly great consequences”. Simplistically put, it subscribes to and exemplifies the Butterfly Theory which says that when a butterfly flaps its wings somewhere in Brazil, its effect could cause a tornado in the Mid West of the United States. The theory, propounded by Edward Lorenz posits that although the present may determine the future, the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.
One wonders whether the Butterfly Theory may be applicable to air transport where a virus discovered in Wuhan in late 2019 has caused chaos in air transport in the world. Here are some recent media clips of chaos in the air transport world:
- “ Chaos at airports as tourism surges after COVID”;
- “Chaos at airports across the world airports around the world are experiencing extreme crowding, delays, and lines of travelers due to the sudden and high increase of traffic after the pandemic restrictions were lifted in most countries”;
- “Toronto’s airport is now worst in the world for delays. The reason may not be what you think. The security line outside U.S. customs in Terminal One at Toronto Pearson International Airport — the busiest airport in Canada and, according to new data, currently the worst airport for delays in the world — looks, at 4 a.m. on a Saturday, something like a diagram of the small intestine. Tired travellers wind in unruly lines from the closed security doors. …”;
- “British Airways passengers were sent an email midair saying that the 2nd leg of their flight had been canceled;
- “Staff couldn't locate their luggage at Heathrow, and they had to travel to Edinburgh without bags;
- “Heathrow has been asking airlines to cancel flights last-minute due to a lack of capacity”;
- “Emirates deemed the request from Heathrow Airport to stop selling summer tickets “unreasonable and unacceptable” and refused it. After the airport set a daily cap of 100,000 passengers for the summer, the airline charged that this showed a “blatant contempt” for its patrons”;
- “ A passenger with an $11,000 ticket to Europe says Air Canada 'begged' 25 people to get off the plane because it was too heavy to take off. Then they lost his bag”:
- “An Air Canada passenger who deliberately took only a carry-on to avoid luggage chaos says she was made to check the bag anyway, only for it to go missing”;
- “American Airlines passengers told to get off the plane they had just boarded after a 5-hour delay because the crew had to go off-duty”.
Unlike the proverbial butterfly in Brazil, one cannot say that the spread of the COVID virus graduating to an officially declared pandemic and its effects on the pent up demand for air travel (after restrictions on trave are lifted), which has started booming in the Summer, was not foreseen: nor could one say that there was no expertise or knowledge in the countries of the world and the air transport industry on resource planning for the future and the ability to envision the plausibility of the current gridlock.
However, a prediction made in Insider in 2020 during the height of the pandemic vindicates the airlines somewhat: “ Airlines won't be able to truly build back their international networks until demand returns, and demand won't come back in full force until various travel restrictions, border closures, and quarantine requirements are lifted. That isn't likely happen until the pandemic is brought more under control — something much of the world, including the US, is still struggling to accomplish. As international travel does return over the next few years, networks and route options will look very different compared to the 2010s.
Massive cuts and dismantling during the pandemic will mean a massive rebuilding effort with airlines cutting anywhere from 50% to 90% of their capacity through the worst of the pandemic, grounding planes and suspending routes, bringing their sprawling, complex networks back online will be a challenge”.
Some commentators did offer plans for revival and a way forward for the air transport but only in theory. One was to attempt a balance between the assistance to be rendered to airlines, the need for support and the undesirable effects that would be caused by distortion of competition.
A supporting view that suggested implementing the above measure was that business dynamics should be preserved, and governments should foster restructuring to adapt to different trends of demand after the pandemic: avoid backing non-viable firms, but support displaced workers. Yet another view supported giving a boost to investments in green technology. Another theory that made sense was that the entire aviation community should focus on the entirety of the value chain of the aviation industry – from aircraft and component manufacturers to airlines to airports and air navigation services providers. The problem was, and still remains, is that there was no compelling and coherent plan for implementation
Here's my take.
What has happened has happened. Although the International Air Transport Association predicted in early 2020 when the pandemic was in its incipient stages that it would be 2024 before the air transport product could be offered at pre pandemic levels, there were no coherent views on the demand trends nor were there rationales offered for this forecast, given that there was no way one could map the trajectory of the pandemic at that time. The current problem is mainly due to the lack of human resources to meet the burgeoning demand for air transport and the lack of a coalesced internationally agreed set of rules for implementation of the basic principle enunciated in the Preamble to the Chicago Convention of 1944 – that Contracting States must strive for the development of air transport in a safe and orderly manner, soundly and economically, with equality of opportunity (to compete).
One provision which goes largely unnoticed is Article 22 of the Convention which provides that each contracting State is obligated “to adopt all practicable measures, through the issuance of special regulations or otherwise, to facilitate and expedite navigation by aircraft between the territories of contracting States, and to prevent unnecessary delays to aircraft, crews, passengers and cargo, especially in the administration of the laws relating to immigration, quarantine, customs and clearance”.
All this comes back to the issue of communication between States, between States and airlines as well as between States and airports, with all three players and air navigation service providers and with all four parties talking to each other collectively as well. Communication has never been as important as it is in the current context in a pandemic riddled world where the world itself, and air transport in tow, are analogically what Winston Churchill called Russia – which could well turn out to be our inheritance of the post pandemic world –“ a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma”. Former Secretary of Defence of the United States, Donald Rumsfeld, has relieved us of this sage conundrum by reminding us that our reality is shrouded in known knowns; those are things we know we know; known unknowns - that is to say we know there are some things we do not know, as well as unknown unknowns—the ones we don't know we don't know. We can do nothing about the last one. Known knowns are, if we do not take intelligent measures, not only would the virus will stay with us for some time, and without intelligent consultation and discourse between all concerned parties air travel will not return to “before times” – meaning air travel devoid of the current misery faced by travellers. As for the known unknowns, no one knows how the virus will behave, and how countries would come together to ensure that Article 22 truly applies.
The fact that airlines, airports and air traffic management are using information and communications technology in the advancement of their activities and in coping with the exponential rise in demand for air transport leaves no room for doubt that they are on the right track. However, they must not disregard the fact that law and regulation are key elements in managing data flows and ensuring that whatever the buzzwords might be in modern technology and science, and however much they would facilitate the functioning of a rapidly changing world, they must be properly regulated.
I address these issues (and more) in my latest book Post Pandemic Facilitation of Air Transport to be released by Springer in August 2022. Details can be accessed at here
Dr. Abeyratne is Senior Associate, Aviation Law and Policy at Aviation Strategies International. A former senior official at the International Civil Aviation Organization, Dr. Abeyratne currently teaches aviation law and policy at McGill University.
Post a Comment