Revenge – The Determining factor?

“The Rajapakse election strategy of requesting the electorate to show gratitude for his administration’s military victory does not quite work, as it is argued that Rajapakse did not show gratitude to Fonseka and the army.”
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By Dushy Ranetunge

(January 15, Colombo, Sri Lanka Guardian) During a previous election many in Colombo and the affluent classes were overconfident of a UNP victory. At the time there was a massive disjoint between the perceptions in Colombo and those in the country. Rajapakse tapped into these rural aspirations, and Prabakaran assisted by excluding the Tamil vote. The rest was history.

The Rajapakse Presidency has performed in terms of delivering a military victory and many infrastructure development projects during adverse global economic conditions. On the negative side, it has mishandled the concluding weeks of the war in its hurry to finish it off before the conclusion of the Indian elections and dragged Sri Lanka to the gates of a war crimes investigation. The Presidency is also ultimately responsible for a string of executions where no progress has been made in terms bringing the guilty to justice, widespread impunity, human rights abuses, abuse of power, endemic corruption and bribery.

In historical terms it’s a gigantic achievement, as before Mahinda Rajapakse, a local ruler militarily united this island only in 1160 AD; Parakramabahu the great of Polonnaruwa. In between, the British King George III of the House of Hanover again militarily united it in 1815.

But yet it seems inadequate to capture the imagination of the electorate.

This aspect seem somewhat reminiscent of the first term of the Jayawardene Presidency, where massive infrastructure projects including the giant Mahaveli scheme and major structural adjustments to the economy were considered adequate to maintain support and dampen rising Tamil militancy. But it was not enough, as the Tamil electorate had been consumed by other considerations than what Jayawardene had in mind.

It’s the same today. This time the Sinhalese electorate is not talking about Rajapakse’s concrete roads, harbours or coal power plants, but about corruption, poor governance, human rights and the quality of democracy itself.

The Rajapakse election strategy of requesting the electorate to show gratitude for his administration’s military victory does not quite work, as it is argued that Rajapakse did not show gratitude to Fonseka and the army.

On election platforms Rajapakse condemns the “katakatha Brigade” but his perceived conduct after suspicions/”katakatha” of a coup, including the manoeuvrings of the Indian army are also not very forthcoming and could be interpreted as even being traitorous and an insult to the armed forces.

The Rajapakse clan is out of touch with the evolving aspirations of the mobile phone generation, zooming around in their three wheelers and motor bikes. They want more, in terms of democracy and governance. This is where Fonseka scores, as Rajapakse is weak.

The aspirations and considerations that brought Rajapakse to power changed overnight on that fateful day in May 2009 to be replaced by a new set of aspirations and considerations with which the Rajapakse’s are increasingly out of sync and are struggling today.

Many criticise that now famous “white flag” expose of Federica Janz in the Sunday Leader and interpret it as being unfavourable to Fonseka. Another point of view is that it has done Fonseka a lot of good, and this includes his statement that he was out of the country during those critical days in May, which perceived to distanced him from the “white flag” events. These two, in could prove critical in a Fonseca victory.

Everyone loves to hate Prabakaran, and an overwhelming majority of Sinhalese thinks he got what he deserves even if he was killed with an axe. But yet, amidst this carnage, the white flag story about the gunning down of surrendering LTTE cadres, their women and children though not discussed, seem to leave an uncomfortable bitter taste that is bothering the conscience of the Sinhalese electorate.

They don’t talk about it, but they say “Its time for a change”, perhaps being polite in their rural way.

Although the Rajapakse administration scoffed at the Western Democracies and dismissed them as LTTE defenders, it is clear that the issues the Western democracies raised in terms of impunity, human rights, governance, and the quality of democracy, matters to a significant portion of the rural Sri Lankan electorate and the arrogance of the administration in this regard has proved to be their Achilles heel. Sri Lankans as a whole do not share Rajapakse’s enthusiasm for Iran, Libya and Myanmar.

Bribery and corruption is eating away at the very fabric of democracy and effecting the quality of governance at a rural level and the allegations made against the first family and the extended family and then there is the clan, does not help.

All these issues have dramatically eroded the credibility of the Rajapakse Presidency to an extent where it is no longer possible for the President to secure a second term on the Sinhala vote alone. It is doubtful if this was ever possible although some radicals thought so.

The Fonseka campaign seem to have realised this at the very outset and beat Rajapakse to Jaffna.

It is suspected that the Muslims will vote in large numbers for Fonseka.

It seems that the Tamil vote, which was disenfranchised by Prabakaran at the last Presidential election might very well prove to be the determining factor in a few days, and as to how the Tamils would vote is open to debate.

It is unlikely that they will vote out of “gratefulness” for being “liberated” from the “LTTE menace” and for being “looked after” in “welfare camps” by the Rajapakse’s. These perceptions are pipe dreams of Sinhala nationalists and is far away from reality.

Out of the many comments from Tamils about their voting intentions, two are worth mentioning.

One comment was “Mahinda has treated us so badly, no one else can treat us any worse, so I am voting for Sarath”

Another comment by a Tamil journalist of the Uthayan newspaper in Jaffna was “we are asked to choose between the one who ordered the killing and the one who killed”

With Rajapakse’s credibility within the Sinhalese electorate greatly eroded, the Tamil vote will be critical and “revenge” could emerge as the determining factor in this election.

For the Tamil mind there is nothing between the two candidates. Both candidates are tarnished by a brutal and a bitter war that has dragged the republic to the gates of an international war crimes investigation.

Election promises made by Rajapakse and Fonseka to the Tamils and Tamil political parties mean nothing to the Tamils, as history has taught them to treat promises by Sinhalese politicians with a pinch of salt.

What remains is revenge.

To achieve by the ballot, what could not be achieved by the bullet, for the death and the suffering of Tamils, for bussing them out of Colombo, for rounding their people in camps like the state had never done to the Sinhalese after crushing the JVP, for so many broken promises, for the children gunned down in Trincomalee, for the incidents depicted in the channel 4 video, for those who died having faith in the white flag and above all for the utter humiliation inflicted upon their people, which has created one of the worlds largest and hostile Diasporas.